THE triumphalism triggered by the International Monetary Fund's upgraded growth forecasts for the UK economy is truly perplexing.

Perhaps we should not have been surprised that thinly-veiled smugness was the order of the day for the Coalition's architects of austerity, principally Chancellor George Osborne, when the IMF on Tuesday raised its projection of UK growth this year from 0.9% to 1.4% and its forecast for 2014 from 1.5% to 1.9%.

But the complacent reaction was nevertheless remarkable. After all, the revised growth forecasts from the IMF are still way below the 2.75% historical average annual UK rate of growth cited by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney in a speech in August.

So just to be clear, 1.9% growth, were it to be achieved, would be no reason for the Coalition to be popping the champagne corks. Especially given that next year will see the fifth anniversary of the end of the Great Recession in the UK.

What is even more remarkable is that not only the Coalition but also some commentators who should know better have been touting the IMF's latest musings on the UK in its latest World Economic Outlook this week as evidence that austerity has worked. This is a bewildering conclusion.

UK economic output is still about 3% below its peak ahead of the onset in 2008 of the Great Recession. The US and Germany, to take a couple of examples, have been far quicker to get back above their pre-recession output.

And we must not forget that the UK has failed miserably to get back, even over a protracted period, to its pre-recession level of output and to something resembling a growth rate around its historical trend even though monetary policy has been looser than it has ever been. UK base rates have been at a record low of 0.5% since March 2009.

The other thing worth bearing in mind in all of this is that the IMF has not covered itself in glory in terms of its prescriptions and pronouncements.

First it was falling over itself to endorse Mr Osborne's draconian austerity programme. Then, in April, it warned he was "playing with fire" with his austerity measures. It is a great pity that it did not issue the latter pronouncement a few years earlier, although the Coalition would probably have ignored it anyway.

This week, of course, the IMF's lack of criticism of austerity was taken by the Coalition as an endorsement of what it has been doing in terms of slashing public spending and welfare benefits, and hiking value-added tax.

Regardless of whether or not it was an endorsement, we must remember that the IMF, while obviously very powerful and influential, is not the font of all knowledge, especially in the unprecedented situation in which the world finds itself.

The importance of bearing this in mind was summed up perfectly by an astute Greek friend in early July, when the "troika" of inspectors from the IMF, European Commission, and European Central Bank arrived in his country to ensure the grip of austerity was tight enough before releasing further bail-out aid.

After watching television coverage of the troika's arrival, he declared: "It occurred to me - I just hope these people know what they are doing."

He is right to raise this question. After all, just how does the IMF expect the Greek economy to get out of the hole it is in by forcing ever-greater austerity? Perhaps the IMF should have been more active and visionary at the start in dealing with the developing situation in Greece, providing more support and fending off the financial market speculators who exacerbated the sorry mess.

So, just because the IMF has shifted yet again on the UK, from being critical of the severity of the austerity programme to no longer citing it as a serious threat to recovery, this certainly does not mean the Coalition is, or has been, on the right track.

The key issue remains where we would be had Mr Osborne not been champing at the bit to ramp up the austerity programme in his first Budget in 2010, and had the mix of measures not been such that people on lower incomes, who by necessity spend all of their money, have borne the brunt of the Coalition's grand plan.

Common sense would suggest the economic performance would have been a lot better - it could hardly have been much worse.

Mr Carney has observed the UK has endured its weakest recovery on record, and declared: "The real cost of this poor performance is that around a million more people are unemployed than before the recession."

There has undoubtedly been a run of stronger UK economic data of late. However, Mr Osborne's vision of a "Britain carried aloft by the march of the makers" has not materialised.

With data on exports and business investment looking unconvincing at best, the UK's recovery hopes appear to be pinned to an alarming extent on hard-pressed consumers and Coalition moves to inflate the housing market.

Justin King, chief executive of Sainsbury's, pointed out this week that UK consumers would be poorer than they are now this time next year given pay growth continues to lag inflation.

He is right, and this is a crucial factor in terms of the economic outlook.

Taking this together with the current US budget shambles and slowing growth in some emerging markets, trepidation might be more fitting than triumphalism.