THE value of Scottish retail sales showed year-on-year growth last month for the first time since December, as fine weather boosted demand for summer clothing and footwear, industry figures reveal today.
The year-on-year increase in sales value in March of 1.8%, revealed in the Scottish Retail Consortium's latest monthly monitor, was the strongest such rise since April last year.
But it was only half of the 3.6% year-on-year rise in sales UK-wide in March, reported this month by the British Retail Consortium.
And, while the year-on-year rise in retail sales value in Scotland in March was a welcome development, the latest figures still point to a fall in volumes given data from the Office for National Statistics yesterday showed that annual UK consumer prices index inflation stood at 3.5% in March.
SRC director Ian Shearer said: "Scotland's record-breaking March temperatures helped bring a badly-needed lift for the retail sector. These are the first positive sales figures since Christmas and the best results overall for nearly a year."
Citing a weather-related boost to garden products and some food lines as well as to clothing and footwear, he added: "The unusually early sunshine encouraged people to start buying summer clothes and shoes, outdoor furniture, and gardening supplies. Food retailers benefited from sales of barbecue meats, salads and ice-cream."
But Mr Shearer cautioned that the "comparison is with a March which was cold and weak a year ago".
David McCorquodale, head of the Scottish retail practice at accountancy firm and survey sponsor KPMG, noted that last month was the warmest March since 1938. In contrast, there had been snow in March 2011.
Mr Shearer meanwhile highlighted the continuing weakness of underlying sales volumes in March in spite of the 1.8% year-on-year rise in value. He said: "The sales increase is still a real-terms fall once inflation is factored in. Scotland's total sales grew at only half the rate of the UK as a whole and show Scottish retailers continue to face exceptionally tough conditions, hampered by low consumer confidence and reduced footfall.
Mr Shearer added: "The boost is welcome but could just be purchases which have come earlier than usual, rather than additional spend."
Meanwhile, he highlighted the extremely difficult circumstances facing some high street players.
Mr Shearer said: "Some retailers face a struggle for survival as sales remain dependent on deep discounting. It will take more than a few weeks of warmth to bring retailing back to full health."
Mr McCorquodale emphasised the weakness of sales in March 2011. Sales value in March last year was down 0.3% on the same month of
2010 – the first year-on-year fall since comparable records began in 1999.
The SRC figures show food sales value last month was 4.2% higher than in March 2011, although Mr McCorquodale noted rising food prices.
The value of non-food sales, the more discretionary element of consumer spending, was last month 0.4% weaker than in March 2011. Mr McCorquodale said this decrease "was mainly around furniture and floor coverings, where significant caution persists".
l The International Monetary Fund yesterday raised its forecast of UK growth this year from 0.6% to 0.8% – still well adrift of a long-term annual trend rate of about 2.5%. It held its 2013 forecast at 2%.
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