BY MARK BARNETT
Looking for high yield in 2015? Has someone told you this might be the answer to your investment needs? One word of warning: beware that evil temptress, known as 'high but unsustainable yield'.
In the agricultural sector, the words "high yield" have historically had positive connotations, however the same cannot be said for the financial world. Here, there have long been examples of high yields that have proved unsustainable, dating back to the nineteenth century.
Yet investors continue to succumb to the temptation of high but unsustainable yield - they fall headlong into the so-called yield trap, discovering after purchase that the underlying company's high profits the previous year were not repeatable and that the shares were "cheap" for a reason.
The moral of the story is not to be blinded into investing in a company by the lure of a high dividend yield, without kicking the tyres and carrying out stringent due diligence beforehand.
In a low wage growth, low deposit rate world, dividend income and the scope for that dividend income to grow over time are, for me, extremely important decision-making criteria. The headline dividend yield of a company or starting yield, as it is sometimes known, is only part of the equation: shares offering a high yield might simply reflect weak short-term price performance, due to a deteriorating profits outlook, rather than because the company's success has been overlooked by the market.
Thus, I tend to look at a company's dividend yield in the context of its long-term profits outlook, and relative to its competitors. In short, though it may seem counterintuitive, I would rather invest in shares of a company on a 3 per cent starting yield with excellent growth prospects, than a company on a 6 per cent where I see a high risk of a significant dividend cut.
I am therefore especially vigilant when it comes to interpreting a high yield - is it an attraction or a warning sign? Hence my emphasis on high levels of due diligence, energetic tyre-kicking, hard-nosed rigorous cross examination of expert input followed by healthy internal debate, before I make my initial investment.
Right now, I am heartened by the rising dividend pay-out ratio of the companies in the FTSE All-Share Index. What this means is that companies in general, rather than retaining their profits for a rainy day or for capital investment, have been paying out a higher percentage of earnings by way of a dividend.
In light of this trend, it seems probable that total market dividends will grow more closely with the underlying earnings of UK-listed companies in the coming year and consensus for earnings growth for 2014 is about 3.6 per cent. I would therefore expect market dividend growth to be in line with this level. Naturally, there will be some companies which cut dividends and others which grow them by more than the average.
My aim is to invest in companies which can grow their dividend, on a sustainable basis by more than the market average and by more than the rate of inflation.
While it is true that equities continue to look attractive relative to other asset classes, many valuations still look elevated where, in my view, share prices do not appropriately anticipate the risk to earnings and cash-flows the underlying companies are facing. My investment strategy is therefore, largely unchanged from the recent past. I place significant importance and value on the companies in the market which offer visibility of revenues, profits and cash-flows in this low growth world and which are managed for the sole purpose of delivering shareholder value in the form of a sustainable and growing dividend.
Mark Barnett is Head of UK Equities at Invesco Perpetual
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereComments are closed on this article