Who would be a Liberal Democrat MP?

Not many, I hear you cry.

North of the border, Alistair Carmichael looks set to be the last man standing if the noble Tory peer's polling is right.

Indeed, the big man from Orkney could end up being leader of his entire UK party if, as some predict, the yellow peril implodes on May 7.

In Scotland, where a fifth of the Lib Dem army is encamped, the omens look particularly bad.

One seasoned party figure confided that Danny Alexander, the urbane Chief Secretary to the Treasury, a member of the Quad and a potential party leader of the future, was a goner.

"I can't see him surviving. It doesn't really help when in Scotland you're seen as George Osborne's hand-maiden," he observed.

According to the Ashcroft snapshot even Charles Kennedy, once described as the most liked politician in Scotland, would be for the chop.

Yet, one has to be cautious. The polling did not mention names; the recognition factor, come election time, might be key.

One psephological anecdote is that punters in Ross, Skye and Lochaber were asked if they would vote Lib Dem and many rolled their eyes and said no. But asked if they would vote for Mr K, they beamed and said of course.

An interesting aspect of the Tory benefactor's survey was the general polling the Lib Dems received in the covered constituencies - two per cent. Given the margin of error, that could be well nigh zero.

Other parts of the polling were also informative. On whether the parties were "on the side of people like me", the Lib Dems polled the lowest number at 13 per cent compared to Labour on 34 and the Tories on 25. On who had long-term practical policies, again the Lib Dems scored the lowest on 13 per cent with the Tories on 44 and Labour on 42.

One party figure bemoaned that Nick Clegg was "toxic" and the Lib Dems, who have 56 seats, would be lucky to hang onto half. "Twenty five would be a good result," he accepted.

In 2010, the party did not expect to be in the position it found itself and had to make a landmark decision to get into political bed with the Tories. The most notable rebel was Mr Kennedy.

Of course, it could be that despite getting much fewer MPs, the Clegg contingent survives in sufficient numbers to consider re-entering the matrimonial bed with David Cameron.

The difference this time round would be that the Lib Dems would be split down the middle between the social democrats and the Orange bookers on whether to make the leap a second time.

The election is, of course, a numbers game. But the Lib Dem source noted if the Tories became the largest party and offered a deal, could Mr Clegg, or Mr Carmichael, afford to reject it? Because Mr Cameron could be eyeing a second General Election just months down the line if he could only form a minority government this spring. And having got 25 MPs in May, the Lib Dems could be down to 12 in a second poll in September. Orkney and Shetland might feel a very lonely place.