The UK Independence Party and not the Scottish National Party may be the most significant factor for a Yes victory in the 2014 referendum.
Don't just take my word for it. The Buffer Institute for the Study of Social Policy and Other Odds and Ends said: "The stunning gains for Ukip in the English council elections brings a sea change to British politics which makes an independent England much more likely."
Using sophisticated extrapolation techniques, the Buffer Institute predicts that with a growing number of Tory MP defections to Ukip, David Cameron will be forced to invite the far-right party into the Coalition. The LibDems will threaten to quit but eventually remain in a tripartite government because they have nowhere else to go.
A safe Westminster seat will be found for Nigel Farage who will become a deputy prime minister. Mr Farage's official Government remit will be to bring back smoking in pubs, persuade people to wear a blazer with collar and tie and say rude things about the European Union.
Behind the scenes, Mr Farage will apply Ukip thinking to the policy areas of immigration, welfare spending, roads and housing. Migrants will only be allowed into England if they have arranged accommodation in the spare bedroom of a benefits claimant. Both claimant and migrant will have a quota of the number of potholes in local roads they must fix each week.
Other Ukip policies likely to be adopted include building a new generation of segregated motorways for British drivers only. Weekly sessions where senior council officials are put in stocks and pelted with rotten vegetables. Women suspected of being witches are ducked in mill ponds.
The main role Mr Farage and Ukip will have in the Coalition is to arrange Britain's exit from the European Union. The Euro referendum will be pencilled in for spring 2014. With the influx of hundreds of thousands of Albanians and Romanians into the shires, the result will be a foregone conclusion. England will vote heavily in favour of leaving Europe. Scotland will opt marginally to stay in.
The Tory-Ukip partnership will make a rapid start with trial repatriation schemes. First they will come for gay Albanians then work through other suspect categories. Scotland will look on in horror and, come the referendum in September, decide there is no option but to set England free.
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