THE decline by more than a fifth in the number of Scots opting for postgraduate study over the last decade is worrying but no one can say the warning signs have not been there for all to see.
A report two years ago by the Higher Education Council, although mainly focused on the position South of the Border, spoke of a "perfect storm ahead" with increasing fees and worsening access to loans discouraging domestic applications. "Postgraduates are key to Britain's continued success in an increasingly competitive world," said the report which stressed high numbers of international students could not compensate for poor take-up domestically.
It is an issue that flares briefly when the latest international league tables of universities shows the inexorable rise up the rankings of institutions in Asia, but is then forgotten amid the competing claims and counter-claims about relative funding of universities and colleges at home.
But there are two key reasons for concern. One is that in many professional sectors the need for a postgraduate qualification is becoming the norm. What is the point of encouraging wider participation of disadvantaged young people in university education if they are going to hit a new glass ceiling? The other area of concern is that the postgraduate sector is bound up with encouraging research and development, which is crucial to Scotland's ability to face global challenges in the coming decades.
Why are young Scots opting out of postgraduate study? Although they do not pay undergraduate tuition fees they will still emerge after four years with significant debt, which is obviously a deterrent to further study. The cost of postgraduate fees, which have to be met, not borrowed, range from £2,500 to £9,000, but loans are available only up to a maximum of £3,400 - and not for all courses.
Funding available through research grants is being squeezed, particularly European funding consequent upon the Eurozone crisis. In many ways the situation looks more likely to worsen than improve. The first step towards tackling a problem is recognising it, which Education Secretary Michael Russell will do today when he announces the setting up of a working group to examine the factors behind the decline in domestic applicants and what can be done to reverse it.
He recognises the long-term risk to Scotland's ability to remain economically competitive and wants the working group to listen to students and universities and come up with a "package of support" which can be put in place.
That sounds very much like hard cash. At a time when schools, colleges and universities are vying for funds and the overall budget available to the Scottish Government is set to shrink further, Mr Russell, or any successor, may blanch at the recommendations the working group comes up with.
But as the likes of Professor Sir Timothy O'Shea, principal of Edinburgh University, has pointed out, Scotland must create a larger pool of skilled workers if it is to compete globally with emerging nations.
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