FOR several months, headline employment figures from the Office for National Statistics have told a positive story. The most recent set, covering the final three months of last year, showed 2,625,000 people were in jobs in Scotland, the highest figure on record. Unemployment fell 15,000 to 149,000, the lowest since 2009. Scotland's unemployment rate, 5.4 per cent, continued to be lower than the UK figure, at 5.7 per cent. Scotland's two governments, in Edinburgh and London, vied with each to take the credit.

Deputy First Minister John Swinney described the figures as "hugely encouraging" and added: "This clearly demonstrates that the Scottish Government can do much to secure economic growth, tackle inequality and protect public services within the limited powers we have, but we want to - and can - do more." Alistair Carmichael, the Secretary of State for Scotland, said the Coalition's medicine was working. "We've had to take difficult decisions and tackle the deep economic problems we inherited head on. These figures today show our decisions are benefitting communities across Scotland," he beamed.

We can expect to hear those comments distilled into General Election soundbites sooner rather than later. The real picture, however, is not so rosy. There is growing evidence the headline figures disguise a much tougher labour market.

Employment specialist Manpower's latest employment outlook survey, published today, finds that Scotland is the only part of the UK where more employers are planning to shed jobs than recruit new staff. The explanation is simple: low oil prices have depressed the jobs market in Aberdeen and beyond. Low oil prices may be good for the UK economy as a whole but not Scotland, where the jobs are vital. But it is not just the prospect of the employment market contracting that has raised fresh concerns about the fragility of the economic recovery, it is the quality and value of the jobs that are being created.

Last month, the ONS drilled into its own figures and reported that eight out of 10 new jobs created since the Conservative-Lib Dem Government came to power were in low-paid industries. Since then, the STUC has been studying the state of the labour market and its findings also give the Scottish and UK governments pause for thought.

Scotland's record employment figures mask a fall in the number of employees since the recession of 2008. The big rise has been in the ranks of the self-employed, whom the STUC believes are working fewer hours and earning less in precarious, insecure jobs. The number of full-time employees is down 60,000 since the recession, while part-time workers have increased sharply. Youth unemployment remains higher than it was seven years ago, despite big reductions from its peak. The surge in the number of women working has been welcomed on all sides but we need to ask why the number of men in jobs has stagnated. Pay, the STUC also reports, has "collapsed" with the average worker £1670 worse off than he or she would have been had wages kept pace with inflation.

Behind the headlines, the world of work is a harsher place than it was a few years ago, and there is no credit for anyone in that.