If anyone imagined that the incoming SNP leader was laying aside thoughts of Scottish independence for the foreseeable future, they might think again after Nicola Sturgeon's latest shot across the bows of the UK Government.
The First Minister designate's plan for her party to table an amendment to any Westminster bill for an EU referendum, giving each constituent nation of the UK the power to veto the UK's exit from the EU, is highly unlikely to be accepted. But that is not the point. The move is designed to highlight the potential otherwise for Scotland to be forcibly removed from the EU against the will of voters.
Ms Sturgeon also appears to be acting strategically, paving the way with her proposal to create circumstances under which a future SNP-led Scottish Government could call for a second independence referendum. Scotland does seem to be better disposed towards the EU than England, though it would be wrong to imagine Scots are unquestioningly pro-European.
New research suggests that the overwhelming majority of Scottish constituencies would vote to remain in the EU in a referendum while, in England, most constituencies would back leaving. Four polls between January and July asking Scots how they would vote in an in/out EU referendum showed that 46-48 per cent would probably or definitely vote to stay in, 30-34 per cent would probably or definitely vote to leave and 21-23 per cent were undecided.
That is a substantial lead for staying in, though also a sizeable Eurosceptic vote and a lot of don't knows. On issues closely linked to discontent with Europe, the difference between Scots and English is one of degree.
A survey by the Migration Observatory in February showed 58 per cent of Scots want immigration cut, a clear majority, though this is fewer than the 75 per cent who take that view in England and Wales. Immigration is less important as an election issue in Scotland than in the rest of the UK. Scots did, however, elect a Ukip MEP in May, in spite of the party having a much lower profile north than south of the Border.
There is no question that the EU is in need of reform: it needs to be made more efficient, more accountable and more responsive to the desires of member states. But cutting ties with Europe would be catastrophic for Scotland, in terms of trade, jobs and because Scotland has a pressing need to attract bright, enthusiastic migrants, many of whom have already come from eastern Europe and made their home here, bringing with them their skills and industry. That being so, it seems entirely possible that Scots would vote to remain in Europe while English voters opted to leave.
Lately, the Prime Minister has been absorbed in seeking to head off the Ukip threat in English Tory constituencies. This proposal by Ms Sturgeon is a reminder that, if he or indeed any future prime minister loses sight of the need to consider the full range of UK voter opinion on EU membership, he risks fanning the flames of the Scottish independence movement once again.
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereComments are closed on this article