If it is true, as one analyst has said today, that the new opinion poll on independence from TNS-BMRB shows the ball is rolling towards the SNP, it will be particularly unwelcome news for the Scottish Secretary Michael Moore and Treasury minister Danny Alexander, who have spent the last few days furiously trying to push the ball in the other direction.
In co-ordinated speeches last week, the Coalition ministers launched attacks on the case for independence designed to reverse or stall the SNP’s perceived momentum on the issue, but for the most part it all felt a little like an old train travelling on familiar lines. Mr Alexander, Mr Moore and others who support strong devolved government within the Union have rightly recognised it’s important there is a robust challenge to the SNP. However, the ministers’ arguments – particularly Mr Alexander’s warning that Scotland could be left with £65m of the UK’s national debt – are likely to have felt to many like more of the no-no arguments we’ve heard before.
What today’s poll from TNS-BMRB demonstrates is the urgency and importance of remedying this situation. As Professor James Mitchell of Strathclyde University writes in The Herald today, there was a widespread feeling after the elections in May that millions of people voting SNP did not necessarily mean that those millions supported independence. But the fact that TNS-BMRB has reported majority support for independence should act as a warning against such complacency. If we are indeed sleepwalking into independence, as some more passionate commentators have warned, this poll could be the first wake-up call.
Even so, today’s poll should be treated with caution. For several generations, support for independence in this country has rarely shifted far from 27% and even TNS-BMRB has only reported majority support for independence twice since the series of polls began four years ago. What the poll also shows is there is a considerable proportion of the population – one in four – who have simply not made up their minds on the issue.
The SNP may take some comfort from this trend towards indecision, but what it may also reflect is that, with the Scotland Bill about to transfer more powers to Holyrood, we are in a period of great flux and the debate is not a simple choice between independence and the status quo. A third option of a more muscular Scotland in a looser relationship with the rest of the UK – devolution turned up to the max, as it were – is also up for discussion and it may be that arguing positively for this, rather than saying no to independence, will be a more fruitful strategy.
What today’s opinion poll certainly seems to show is that, if anything, Scots are becoming more open-minded on the arguments. This may mean the SNP’s tactic of baby steps towards the target will work in the long run, but it also means there is considerable room for success on both sides. The supporters of strong, devolved government for Scotland must take this opportunity, and quickly.
