Technically, your chance of winning the World Cup is one in 32, because that's the number of teams competing in the finals.
They kick off in Brazil on Thursday, by the way.
Of course, it isn't as simple as that. For instance the odds shorten considerably if your players use mononyms as they're probably Brazilian. They remain short, too, if your native tongue is German or Castilian Spanish or you come from a country with lax drug laws and a thing for windmills. Then they lengthen again if among your ranks there is a Wayne or a Gary. And if you're wearing the blue of Honduras you may as well not get on the plane at all - the odds on them winning the tournament are around 4000-1.
Or that's what the bookies think, anyway. What has rarely been analysed, however, is the effect a great strip has on a poor side and, conversely, how badly good teams play when their kit looks like it was designed by a five-year-old girl then coloured in by her three-year-old brother. Enter Professor Stephen Hawking, who recently stopped worrying about time travel long enough to apply his computational mojo to this very issue. As well as giving his scholarly opinion on the chances of England making it through a penalty shootout - "Couldn't hit a cow's arse with a banjo," he told journalists last week - he says that in order to have any success at all, England need to be wearing red. Luckily (for them), that is the colour of the away top they'll be wearing.
But what of the other teams? Well, having tackled the problem using aesthetics rather than mathematics, I've come to the conclusion that the likely winner of the 2014 World Cup is that very same 4000-1 shot - Honduras. Why? Because of that rather splendid blue strip. Sure, it's understated and it's made by Joma who, despite supplying kit to Queen Of The South, Spanish third division outfit Prat and the Uzbeki national side, could hardly be called one of the giants of the sportswear world. But it does have a rather lovely badge - an enormous H. And what does H stand for? Hope, Heart and Home Advantage (OK, I'm stretching things a bit there. But the Hondurans do sort of share a land mass with the Brazilians, and that must count for something).
I also think Japan might do well, though only if they stick to their away kit, which has so-bad-it's-good written all over it - in highlighter pen. It also has what looks like a stripe of orange paint along the shoulders. Adidas prefer to call the neon green-yellow colour Electricity, though I think Network Rail High-Vis is more appropriate. If there's a floodlight failure, the Japanese will be like 11 glow sticks running up and down the pitch, banging in goals in the dark. They'll be 10 up before the lights come back on.
On the other hand, there are some highly-fancied teams who I fear are going to come a cropper due to their shirt design. Top of the list are Italy, whose over-fussy shirt includes a button-down collar, and Belgium, whose shirt is a mess. I should add that England have quite a good kit - even the white one. Whisper it, but if they can avoid Honduras in the semis, they could go all the way …
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