THE number of cattle reaching slaughter stage looks set to tighten as 2014 progresses, easing the prevailing pressure on farm-gate prices, according to Quality Meat Scotland (QMS).
In the short-term, however, the market is well supplied as a result of an increase by almost 60,000 head in the number of 24- to 30-month-old cattle on GB farms.
"Just under half of these additional cattle are female and some will be destined for the breeding herd, particularly dairy herd expansion. Nevertheless, there is a short-term availability of cattle still weighing on farm-gate prices," observed Stuart Ashworth, QMS head of economic services.
One of the advantages of having a livestock traceability system, Mr Ashworth pointed out, is that it holds a lot of information on cattle numbers, which can help to shine a light on future cattle supplies. This gives a helpful indication of the supply side of the supply and demand equation that drives market prices.
Latest updates on calf registrations reveal that over the first quarter of 2014 Scottish calf registrations were 6.5 per cent lower than last year and across Britain as a whole calf registrations are down 2.8 per cent.
"To re-coup the Scottish decline of the first quarter would require calf registrations during April and May to increase by over four per cent. Despite quite a number of cows calving later than usual as a result of being slow to settle in calf last summer, this would seem unlikely," said Mr Ashworth.
"Across GB as a whole the number of cattle under 18 months old on farms was three per cent lower at the beginning of April than last year. There is also a small decline in cattle aged between 18 and 24 months on GB holdings this April. This points quite clearly to a tightening in the number of cattle reaching the slaughter stage as the year progresses."
For the moment, however, increasing carcase weights are further adding to the volume of domestically produced beef on the home market.
"This also helps to explain why farm-gate cattle prices are still under pressure, as does the latest information from Kantar," said Mr Ashworth.
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Market round-up
The Cumberland and Dumfriesshire Farmers Mart sold 5370 prime hoggs in Longtown on Thursday to a top of £126 per head and 277p per kg to average 226.6p (-0.2p on the week), while 130 prime lambs peaked at £118 and 300p to level at 261.6p (+17.2p).
The 3234 cast sheep forward saw heavy ewes sell to £146 for Texels and average £92.39 (+£1.58), while light ewes peaked at £83 for Blackfaces and levelled at £54.50 (-£3.43). Rams sold to £160 for a Texel and averaged £108.45 (+£8.83).
Messrs Craig Wilson Ltd sold 48 store heifers in Newton Stewart yesterday to a top of 244.6p per kg and an average of 216.4p, while 65 store bullocks peaked at 269.1p and levelled at 218.6p.
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