Having taken a good hard look at the financial sector in Scotland, post-recession and post referendum, my conclusions are surprisingly upbeat.
Despite the decline and fall of our two major banks, the sector has performed reasonably well over the past few years. Further, despite the uncertainties related to the continuing debate on constitutional change (both Scotland in the UK and the UK in Europe), there is the prospect of an increasing number of distinctly high skilled and high-value-added jobs.
The output of my examination of the sector was an evidence-based paper for IPPI on the recent performance and prospects of financial services. (This paper is available via the Fraser of Allander web site.) Data on the financial sector remain distinctly imperfect. But it appears clear that - as we would expect - financial services out-performed the Scottish economy as a whole from 2005-2008. The surprise is that after a sharp fall over the next two years the sector has bounced back, even while RBS and HBOS remain in relatively poor health.
It is always more interesting to look forward. During the referendum period it became evident that most banks based in Scotland were preparing to move their formal head offices away from Scotland - in the event of a yes vote. Other companies in the financial sector selling products across the UK were making similar preparations. The risk of currency instability, and possible changes in regulation, etc. led them to believe that it would be easier to sell products from a base in the rest of the UK - perhaps leaving a smaller organisation based in Scotland to sell within Scotland.
While the constitutional uncertainties remain these risks have not disappeared. However, that should not be seen as meaning that all Scotland can hope for in the future from financial services is a few companies selling products domestically and low skill and low wage back office jobs. On the contrary, discussion with a number of key players leads me to believe that there is every prospect of Scotland building upon what already exists and proving a highly competitive location for a host of 'footloose' high skill and high value activities in financial services. Essentially this is because Scotland is a cost-effective location for employers and an attractive location for employees.
Scotland is already blessed with a range of high quality jobs across a range of financial service companies - some Scottish based, some with HQs in London or the rest of the UK and a good number of companies with HQs in a range of international locations. There may have been hiccups during the referendum, with some companies holding back on inward investment decisions. But provided the right signals are now given the jobs already here should be secure and there should be scope for many more to be attracted.
We have the skills across a broad range and a continuing flow of able graduates from our highly regarded Higher Education institutions. Companies know that they will be able to access the skills they require at competitive rates. Our position on this front would be even stronger if foreign graduates and postgraduates were allowed - as Lord Smith commends - to stay and work in Scotland when their courses were completed. I know that the Scottish Government is pressing hard for this concession and can but hope that the UK Government yields rapidly to the clear underlying logic.
We have a remarkable international reputation across the sector. Asset management is an under-emphasised but key Scottish strength. This is one sub-sector set to boom and internationalise at pace, and where the flight of HQs should not be a concern. Companies based here have demonstrated that they can compete across the globe from a position of strength. As the pace of internationalisation accelerates along with the extent of assets to be managed, we will, however, need the best of digital communications and enhanced air links with these emerging economies. The early devolution of Air Passenger Duty could permit moves here to encourage a proliferation of such routes.
What is also needed is clarity that no changes are planned, or even contemplated, which would risk the competitiveness of Scotland so far as companies or highly skilled and ambitious professionals are concerned. Scotland as a whole will benefit from more such jobs, with their wider beneficial effects. The message needs to issue loud and clear that high value-added elements of financial service sector companies would be welcome here, wherever their HQs might be.
One other key point emerged during my research. The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA - the Competition Commission as was) is investigating retail and SME (small and medium-sized enterprises) banking. The CMA has noticed that Scotland is a distinct market. It has also noted that only two banks are significant players in the SME market here. Key parties should hasten to stress how Scotland would gain from a more competitive SME banking market and work with the CMA to identify means to break down entry barriers and encourage more competition and a more customer-friendly approach. All SMEs would benefit if that could be achieved.
Jeremy Peat is visiting professor at the University of Strathclyde's International Public Policy Institute
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