Once the long-held fiefdom of a colourful Tory, his party successor faces a tough job to reclaim it

Confounding those who said its victory was a by-election quirk, Perth could one again return an SNP MP, says Robbie Dinwoodie

ALMOST as soon as Ms Roseanna Cunningham held aloft her white rose of Scotland to celebrate becoming MP for Perth and Kinross two years ago, it was being asked whether this was another by-election flash in the pan, or if the SNP could hold the seat.

Against the expectations of many, and in spite of controversial remarks which some thought smacked of racism, flamboyant QC Sir Nicky Fairbairn had clung on by 2094 votes in the 1992 General Election. This was down from 5676 in 1987, but it was still a bitter blow to the SNP.

The by-election turned that into an SNP majority of more than 7000, but almost immediately the Tory predictions began - mid-term blues, they said. The seat would ''come home'' at the General Election. Now it's time to find out.

The by-election was a doomstruck campaign for the Conservatives from the start. Knowing he was nearing death, Sir Nicky had given an interview to The Herald in which he lamented the way modern parties squeezed out freethinking candidates with experience of the broader world, brutally dubbing his nominated successor ''an unelectable party clone''.

That successor, merchant banker Mr John Godfrey, took the remarks on the chin and got on with the forlorn task in hand, but there followed a string of gaffes, some big enough to convince observers that the Tories had no chance.

Their constituency headquarters out in the forests of Perthshire was dubbed ''the bunker'' to match their mentality. In-town their base was a recently vacated funeral directors' premises.

Their early leaflets attempted to smear their SNP opponent as ''Republican Rose'' and an appallingly crude linkage was made at the time of the VE Day celebrations between the Allies' fight against Nazism and the Tories' struggle against Scottish nationalism.

At the height of this attempt to wave the Union Flag and portray the Conservatives as the party of strong defence policies, their candidate was asked whether in view of the recent defence review he could name the Scottish regiments. He stumbled horribly, even failing to name, in Perth of all places, the Black Watch. His 'minder,' Aberdeen South MP Raymond Robertson tried to come to his aid with ''er, the Amalgamated Highland Thing-umybobs ...''

Meanwhile, under some pretty forceful questioning from the same press corps Ms Cunningham was just about bearing up, although pressed relentlessly on her personal opposition to the monarchy. She eventually conceded that she opposed it because she saw it ''as the pinnacle of the class system in Britain''.

In contrast, New Labour ran such a tight ship that we barely discovered just how good a candidate and how bright and personable a young man Mr Douglas Alexander was until the whole thing was over.

But these were fevered by-election days. Now, away from the spotlight, the parties - and three of the candidates - are getting on with a more conventional hustings. For the Lib Dems this time, Surrey-based Dundonian Mr Chick Brodie, a computer software company director, claims the seat is more volatile than it looks.

A councillor in the south and a five-time Parliamentary candidate, the distinctive strand to his argument will be the flowering of Perth and the east coast ports through greater European links.

So is it now a seat which has fallen for good the SNP, a rogue mid-term loss which will return to the Tory fold, or a three-way fight in which New Labour can prove there are no longer ''no-go areas'' for the party?

Mr Alexander certainly argues it that way. ''The fact that we pushed John Godfrey into third place has transformed this constituency,'' said the Labour candidate.

Labour has been arguing on the broad issues - the scandal of low pay was the theme of Mr Alexander's adoption speech - and it believes it is strong in Perth itself and one or two outposts. In truth, he would do extraordinarily well to hold on to second place.

Mr Godfrey is convinced that he will be rewarded with victory for the way he took the by-election knocks and stayed to fight back. Although his work as a merchant banker is in London, he has been working the seat for two and a half years now, a familiar figure at agricultural fairs and lunch clubs.

He will attack the local SNP council administration as his main weapon against the by-election victor. The thrust of his argument is: ''If they can't run the local toilets, how can they aspire to run an independent Scotland?'' His cause is not helped, however, by there being two Euro-sceptic fringe candidates, for the UK Independence Party and the Referendum Party, whose influence, however small, is likely to be against him.

Ms Cunningham believes the council record will help, not hinder, her effort, and she is confident that the work has been put in to retain the seat, which was gradually falling to the SNP anyway as first generation nationalists gave way to second and third generation supporters.

And although the strong SNP area of Kinross has been moved to neighbouring Ochil, Almondbank comes in to partially compensate. ''This is a constituency where to win, you have to do well in both Perth itself and in the countryside. Labour work the city, the Tories go after the rural vote. Only the SNP are doing both, and that is why we will hold the seat,'' she said.

The deciding factor will be undecided Labour voters. If they stick with their party, that could hurt the SNP in Perth itself. But if it appears in the final days of the campaign that the Tories have a real chance of regaining the seat, many are likely to opt for Ms Cunningham to prevent that happening. Look for the white rose brandished aloft again.

THE CONTENDERS

SNP: Roseanna Cunningham, 45. Australian-born lawyer. On the Left of her party but her honesty about her views neutralised Tory attacks. Parliamentary spokeswoman on heritage, employment and home affairs.

CONSERVATIVE: John Godfrey, 33. Banker and Tory researcher and adviser, including a spell under Douglas Hurd as Home Secretary. Fought Maryhill at last General Election and then Perth and Kinross by-election.

LABOUR: Douglas Alexander, 29. A Lawyer and also a son of the manse like his mentor, Shadow Chancellor Gordon Brown, undoubtedly destined for the top.

LIBERAL DEMOCRATS: Chick Brodie, 52, Works in computer software. A seasoned campaigner exiled in South of England, but native Dundee is calling him.

UK INDEPENDENCE PARTY: Matthew Henderson, 65. Glenalmond educated retailer and member of Federation of Small Businesses.

REFERENDUM PARTY: Robert MacAuley, 56. After a career in training management, is currently working in hotel catering.