Right now whenever I’m asked to comment on the situation in Syria it tends to be centred on three main questions?

First, has Russia’s intervention made Syria more dangerous and what does Moscow expect to gain from its increased involvement? Second, what can we expect to see happening on the ground in the coming weeks and months? And third, how will all this impact on the already dire humanitarian and refugee crisis that has resulted from the conflict?

Before looking at these three questions let me just say from the outset that the overall prognosis is far from good.

Indeed just yesterday there were already signs on the ground of what we can expect in the immediate future. Throughout the day, Syrian troops and allied militia backed by Russian air strikes and cruise missiles fired from warships, attacked rebel forces as the government of President Bashar al-Assad extended a major offensive to recapture territory in the west of the country.

In effect what we are seeing is a coordinated assault by land, air and sea being unleashed jointly between Russia and Syria. Together they are seeking to reverse the strategic and territorial gains made by rebel groups that were beginning to seriously encroach on Assad’s bastions of power especially along the Syrian coast.

So, going back to my original question of whether Russia’s intervention has made Syria more dangerous, then the answer has to be a resounding yes. Just yesterday Nato’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, underlined the dangers of such an escalation before a meeting with the alliance’s defence ministers in Brussels.

“In Syria we have seen a troubling escalation of Russian military activities. We will assess the latest developments and their implications for the security of the alliance,” stressed Stoltenberg, adding that Nato was “ready and able to defend all allies, including Turkey against any threats.”

Stoltenberg’s remarks of course come in the wake of the recent violations of Turkey’s -Nato’s airspace by Russian aircraft, highlighting how easily this whole crisis could slip over into an altogether new and different confrontation.

If Moscow’s intervention then is making things more dangerous what does President Vladimir Putin expect to gain from such a high stakes move.

Some analysts have suggested that Putin’s Syria intervention was undertaken from a position of weakness rather than strength, pointing to the fact that it was done to prop up the crumbling regime of a long-time ally.

Seen from a US perspective Russia’s moves are doubtless perceived as an attempt to strengthen Assad’s hands in the event that a future political settlement to the Syrian crisis is required.

Assad has been in trouble for some time now and Russia would amongst other things be very reluctant to give up its only major naval port on the eastern Mediterranean at the coastal city of Tartus.

But Putin stands to benefit from the intervention in other ways too. To begin with it helps him shore up his political popularity at home as well as maintain and bolster Russia’s regional influence.

It has also presented an opportunity to put one over on President Barack Obama who has pursued a cautious policy aimed at limiting US military involvement in Syria and the wider Middle East after Washington’s own Iraq war debacle.

Celebrating his sixty-third birthday this week Putin has never appeared more confident and his grip on power never more secure, even if some insist this is illusory. In the past two years he has out manoeuvred the West in Crimea, eastern Ukraine and Syria and Western sanctions against Russia have apparently failed to blunt his ambition.

And speaking of that ambition, given what we have seen so far of Putin’s military commitment brings us to the second question of what we can now expect on Syria’s battlefields. This week’s operation around the city of Hama appears to be the first major assault coordinated between Syrian troops and militia on the ground, and Russian warplanes and naval ships.

This offensive will likely target three areas, the northern Homs pocket, the al-Ghab plain and its surrounding mountains in northwest Hama, and the Kweiris air base. If all these operations are successful they would simultaneously eliminate dangerous rebel positions close to the critical cities of Homs and Hama and free up a large number of Syrian government troops for operations elsewhere.

The rescue too of besieged Syrian government forces at the Kweiris air base would represent a significant symbolic victory that would improve morale among other Syrian troops under siege around the country by demonstrating that the al-Assad government has not forgotten them.

This intensification of fighting means of course that yet more innocent civilians will be caught in the crossfire. This brings us to the emotive question of just how all this will play out on the humanitarian and refugee crisis that is now almost five years old and sent millions into exile as refugees.

According to details just realised yesterday by the humanitarian agency Mercy Corps which runs a massive relief operation for Syrian refugees and whose European headquarters are based in Edinburgh, many more Syrians are already on the move.

“People are increasingly moving closer to the border with Turkey so they can cross if things get too bad,” says Michael Bowers, Vice President for Humanitarian Leadership and Response at Mercy Corps.

According to testimony given by Mercy Corps to the US House Committee on Foreign Affairs the growing Russia involvement in Syria is likely to lead to even greater civilian displacement and further complicate the delivery of lifesaving humanitarian assistance.

As I said earlier the overall prognosis is not good. Russia’s intervention may have conjured up memories of the Cold War, but it will be millions of ordinary Syrians who will face another winter of bitter cold and bloodletting.