House prices in Scotland will rise 11.4 per cent in the next four years, with the average home to cost £155,694 by 2020, according to new research.

But the growth will be nearly half that for the whole of the UK, and will be one of the lowest regional rises, according to the study by BNP Paribas Real Estate.

The highest annual growth rate will be seen in the next 12 months, with house price growth rising to 3.3 per cent.

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The firm said that housebuilder appetite remains strong despite the potential impact of rising build costs on profits.

The study of 12 UK regions shows that just the North of England (8.1 per cent) and Northern Ireland (9.6 per cent) will see lower house price rises than Scotland over the four years.

The study says that the performance of those three "clearly reflects the economic challenges facing these regions, with a relatively high exposure to manufacturing and the oil & petrochemical sectors, during a time of weak global demand". The south west of England, the hottest spot for price rises in the study, are predicted to see 33 per cent house price growth, nearly three times the rate of Scotland.

The report says increasing build costs in Scotland are concerning house builders and have a "potential impact on profit for sites acquired recently".

Adrian Owen, head of residential at BNP Paribas Real Estate, said: “The average UK house price rose by 4.25% in 2015, driven by a broad based recovery across the UK.

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“The buoyancy seen during 2015 will persist into 2016 to deliver average growth of 4.7%. However, there are downside risks in the form of the changing tax regime for buy to let investments and challenging economic conditions in some parts of the country.

"The regional economic implications of falling global demand in manufacturing and oil sectors will take its toll on house price growth in those exposed regions.”

Dr John Boyle, director of research and strategy for Rettie & Co believes the new research was "a bit light" on its predictions for house price growth in Scotland.

Rettie were expecting a rise of around 30 per cent between 2015 and the end of the decade.

He said recent house price rises showed Scotland were "still relatively in the doldrums", so so the rate of increase "must climb".

"The market remains in a position of significant excess demand," he said. "We are only building at around 50 to 60 per cent of levels required for the last eight years and there is a shortage of stock, which all acts to push up prices.

"This does not look like changing much up to 2020, but lending should still be relatively tight given new regulations and a much more cautious approach by the banks than pre-2008, limiting growth."

Faisal Choudhry, director of Scottish research with Savills estate agents believed that city and town locations will outperform village and rural locations, due to better access to employment opportunities and amenities.

 

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