Ashdown raises prospect of spring election as May goes for Norway option of staying in single market

“Sooner or later she has to declare her hand as to what does Brexit actually mean. If I judge her right she is a prime minister who has a deep personal conviction about what is right for Britain...She is likely to arrive at a[view] that we should make what sacrifices are necessary to remain a member of the single market. That is the most likely decision she will reach...Norway with bells on.”

He argued this was a “solid position,” which would reflect the country’s view as a whole, and would be made known around the turn of the year. He characterised the Norwegian option as the “best of the worst options” and that Mrs May might be able to finesse it with, say, the introduction of work permits.

However, thus far, the PM has kept her cards close to her chest, stressing only how voters wanted a restriction on the free movement of people principle.

Nonetheless, Lord Ashdown stressed that by advocating the Norwegian option Mrs May would spark a serious Tory revolt as the Right cried betrayal.

The former party leader explained how the PM would not be able to carry her party for this preferred option and she would be unlikely to command a Commons majority, so in those circumstances the “likely outcome” would be that she would go to the country on the Norwegian proposition, which would “put the Right wing to bed” and damage Labour without seeming politically opportunistic.

He said there were deeper divisions in Tory Party that were presently apparent but which would break through to the surface once Mrs May revealed her hand on Brexit.

The former Lib Dem leader said a general election in those circumstances would “in effect” become a second referendum. The victorious PM would then have “a bargaining position with the voice of the British people behind her, she has smashed Labour when they are weak without looking opportunistic, she has put her Right wing to bed; that seems quite a good position”.

He said the British people’s decision on June 23 to leave the EU must be obeyed but if the UK was going to be out, then it should be as close to the EU as possible. However, the peer explained that if some time in the future, there were a second referendum, then the Lib Dems would campaign to get Britain back in the Brussels bloc.

“I don’t think that’s likely, I don’t think that’s going to happen, I can’t see immediate circumstances it would but we don’t resile from the position we’ve have always held; that we want to be in the EU,” he added.

Meantime, Lord Ashdown also warned that withdrawal from the single market could see Sinn Fein trigger a border poll in Northern Ireland with Protestant backing.

The former party leader said he was more worried about how the shockwaves of Brexit could impact on Northern Ireland than on Scotland.

The peer, who grew up in Northern Ireland, said a united Ireland vote pushed by Sinn Fein could gain some Protestant business support but would be defeated and be very destabilising.

"If we get a single market continuation, wise heads ought to be able to come to a conclusion which keeps the border open. If we get less than that, we track back towards a fixed border.

"Sinn Fein could very easily use the provision in the Good Friday Agreement that allows them to have a referendum to call a referendum.

"There are quite a few serious Protestant middle class, especially in the business community, who would say, 'you know, my heart goes to London, but my business interest goes to Europe'.

"But my judgement is that Sinn Fein couldn't win a majority. There's a high likelihood they'd call one in those circumstances. And the problem is that the very fact of calling a referendum in Northern Ireland will hugely destabilise," he added.