The Scottish economy has held up since the EU referendum, although the Brexit vote has already started to impact on business and consumer confidence, according to the Scottish Government's top economist.
The broad view of forecasters is that the UK and Scottish economies will slow over the next year and remain "highly sensitive" to information about the negotiations between the EU and the UK, chief economist Dr Gary Gillespie said.
The scale of the slowdown will depend on how long economic uncertainty continues, he said.
The UK Government plans to trigger Article 50 - the mechanism for withdrawal from the EU - in March, and has so far refused to provide details of its negotiating position.
Dr Gillespie has published his first State of the Economy report since the June vote, summarising key data to provide a picture of the economic outlook for the coming year.
Retail sales data and business surveys provide "relatively positive signals" for output in the three months following the referendum, though business optimism remains weak, according to the report.
The Scottish Consumer Sentiment Indicator has presented a weaker outlook from households between July and September.
Meanwhile the Fraser of AIlander Institute downgraded its projections for growth in 2016 from 1.4% to 0.9%, and for 2017 from 2.1% to 0.5%. PwC forecasts growth of 1.3% in 2016 and 0.3% in 2017.
The report states: "The outcome of the EU referendum has increased economic uncertainty.
"To date this uncertainty has been most visible in financial and currency markets, however, latest data on retail sales in Scotland shows resilience in the sector and consumer spending in the immediate aftermath of the referendum.
"However, with signs of weaknesses in consumer sentiment and business optimism, it is expected to feed through to household and business behaviour over the remainder of this year and next, potentially leading to a slowdown in economic growth.
"The scale of any slowdown will depend on how long the current economic uncertainty persists, the nature of the impacts as they unfold and the extent to which public policy can restore confidence."
Economy Secretary Keith Brown said: "Whilst the fundamentals of the Scottish economy remain strong, the EU referendum result has already started to impact on business and consumer sentiment in Scotland, reflected in the weaker outlook for the economy going forward.
"Scotland voted clearly to remain part of the EU and the absence of any plan at a UK level - either for Brexit, or to support the economy in the aftermath of the vote, is adding to the problem and putting at risk the progress we have made."
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