Experts have warned that last week's extreme weather could cost Scotland's economy as much as £600 million, after heavy snow and freezing conditions paralysed transportation and left shops, offices, farms and factories unable to function.
The cost of up to five days lost business to retailers, restaurants and coffee shops may never be recovered, according economic commentators. Output lost by businesses may be partially made up. However many people were unable to get to work because of the red weather warnings not to travel, the suspension of public transport or because dependent children were off school.
It is likely to be some time before the full cost to insurers and industry are likely to be known. But the AA has said the effects of the 'beast from the east' include at least 13,000 incidents on the roads, at an estimated cost of £17 million.
Inverness-based economist Tony Mackay said economic output in Scotland last year was about £377 a day. If that were reduced by a conservative 20 per cent, or £75million a day, the cost of three days severe disruption would be around £225 million, he told Scotland on Sunday.
After the big freeze of 2010, the UK office of national statistics estimated the UK economy had shrunk by 0.5 per cent as a result of the impact of weather through closures and transportation problems. Were last week's chaos to have a similar effect the total cost to the Scottish economy would be £565 million.
John McLaren, who edits the website Scottish Trends, said an estimate of £300-700 million was "reasonable."
Mark Addley, of accountancy firm PWC said "The impact on the hight street is clearly visible, with several retailers not being able to remain open." While some pubs and restaurants may have seen increased business, others such as supermarkets and grocers may have lost out due to an inability to replenish supplies, he added.
Economic life is expected to being to return to normal today with public transport returning to regular timetables and schools reopening and retailers able to reopen and re-stock.
But the Scottish Government has activated the Bellwin Scheme, which provides additional resources to councils in the event of large-scale emergencies or disasters in their area.
Stuart Mackinnon of the Federation of Small Businesses in Scotland said banks and larger firms should be tolerant of delays in their supply chains and aware of the financial pressures faced by some firms.
"Only in time will we have a good understanding of the economic impact of the recent poor weather," he said. He added: "It will be important, that institutions like the banks support smaller firms that might be facing short-term cash flow problems as a consequence of lost trade."
Businesses in town centres relying on passing trade will have been particularly hard-hit, he said. "Cafe customers are not going to order five cups of coffee when they return," he said. "Schools being closed will have had a huge impact on the wider workforce as parents have had to take time off work."
Howard Archer, chief economic adviser to the EY ITEM Club, a leading economic forecasting group, said:"There will be a hit to economic activity from workers not being able to get to their place of work... Construction activity will be hit. There will also be a hit to the economy from people not being able to go to shops, leisure facilities, theatres, cinemas and restaurants.
"However, the increased ability of workers being able to work from home limits the hit to the economy, as does the ability to shop online."
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