Conservative HQ is bracing itself for an electoral backlash later this week as voters give their first major verdict on Theresa May’s Government since her ill-fated decision to call a general election almost a year ago.
While Scotland unusually has an election-free year, the electorate south of the border will go to the polls on Thursday across 150 councils with more than 4,000 seats up for grabs.
These include seats in London’s 32 boroughs as well as the metropolitan districts of Manchester, Newcastle, Birmingham and Leeds.
These areas last voted in 2014 when Ed Miliband was Labour leader and led it to some success. So given Labour starts from a strong position, it might be difficult in some areas for Jeremy Corbyn to make significant gains.
VIDEO: which ministers have left the Cabinet during Theresa May’s tenure?
There are also mayoral contests in Hackney, Lewisham, Newham and Tower Hamlets in London as well as in Watford and Sheffield.
Local issues from council tax, bin collections and protecting green spaces to national ones around Brexit and the cost of living will all play a part on how people vote although turn-out in some places is notoriously low.
Initially, Tory strategists were playing down their chances of success - Conservative Chairman Brandon Lewis suggested his party was at a “difficult place” in the electoral cycle - but now as opinion polls show Conservative fortunes reviving, so too are Labour and Liberal Democrat ones.
READ MORE: Peers inflict further damage on Theresa May’s Brexit plans
However, the Labour leader and his colleagues have high hopes of making a breakthrough in London, where the Tory strongholds of Westminster and Wandsworth might even be under threat from a major push by the Opposition. There is also a question-mark on whether the Conservatives can hold Kensington and Chelsea given the backlash against the local council over the Grenfell tragedy.
Today, a ComRes online poll of more than 2,000 adults, undertaken over the weekend and published for the Daily Express, shows just how difficult it is to call this week’s polls as the two main parties are neck and neck with Mrs May well ahead of Mr Corbyn on the economy and with no real sign of a Windrush backlash against the Tories.
The snapshot had them staying the same as last month on 40 points with Labour down one, also on 40, and the Lib Dems up two to nine.
Those who disagreed that the economy would be stronger if Mr Corbyn were in Downing St outnumbered those who agreed by more than two to one: 51 per cent to 24 per cent.
READ MORE: Theresa May ducks questions on her future as Windrush row rages on
A poll lasted week placed the Conservatives on five points ahead of Labour, perhaps illustrating how Mrs May won political credit over her stance against Russia in wake of the Salisbury poisoning and on the military action by allies following the chemical attack by the Assad regime while Mr Corbyn has for weeks been dogged by his party’s row over anti-Semitism.
One senior Labour figure said recent opinion polls were “shocking” for his party, noting: “Given all May’s troubles on Brexit and now the Windrush scandal, we should be miles ahead.”
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