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Warming forecast accurate

Scientists who made the first long-term global prediction of climate change have proved surprisingly accurate so far, an experts' assessment has found.

The first Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report published in 1990 forecast the extent to which the world was likely to warm by 2030.

According to this estimate, average global temperatures were likely to rise by 0.7˚C to 1.5˚C. Half way through the period, the forecast appears to be close to the observed trend.

It predicted a rise of 0.35˚C to 0.75˚C up to 2010. The actual rise has been 0.35˚C or 0.39˚C , depending on the methods used.

The prediction was accurate despite unforeseen factors such as the collapse of Soviet Bloc industry and the rise of Asian economies.

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