• Text size      
  • Send this article to a friend
  • Print this article

Warming forecast accurate

Scientists who made the first long-term global prediction of climate change have proved surprisingly accurate so far, an experts' assessment has found.

The first Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report published in 1990 forecast the extent to which the world was likely to warm by 2030.

According to this estimate, average global temperatures were likely to rise by 0.7˚C to 1.5˚C. Half way through the period, the forecast appears to be close to the observed trend.

It predicted a rise of 0.35˚C to 0.75˚C up to 2010. The actual rise has been 0.35˚C or 0.39˚C , depending on the methods used.

The prediction was accurate despite unforeseen factors such as the collapse of Soviet Bloc industry and the rise of Asian economies.

Contextual targeting label: 
Weather

Commenting & Moderation

We moderate all comments on HeraldScotland on either a pre-moderated or post-moderated basis.
If you're a relatively new user then your comments will be reviewed before publication and if we know you well and trust you then your comments will be subject to moderation only if other users or the moderators believe you've broken the rules

Moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours. Please be patient if your posts are not approved instantly.

129911