SCOTLAND needs to be better prepared for the next flu pandemic, scientists have warned after a study revealed swine flu was much more widespread than previously thought.
The ground-breaking research suggests around two million people caught the virus when it hit Scotland, although most did not seek medical attention and many may not have felt unwell.
For every person who con-tacted their GP with symptoms another 19 were actually infected, according to the investigation led by Edinburgh University.
People living in the most depriv- ed neighbourhoods were twice as likely to contract the illness during the winter of 2009-10.
The study was conducted by testing blood samples taken from Scottish adults last March and testing them for antibodies to the virus.
Professor Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at Edinburgh University, said: “We knew many more people would have had flu than had reported it to their GP or otherwise entered the healthcare system. The fact it was 20 times as many is new information.
“It is an even higher discrepancy than perhaps many people would have anticipated.”
He said it was important to have this level of detail while the virus was attacking, rather than after the event, and called for the Government to ensure it was ready to monitor the actual spread of the virus next time a pandemic struck.
Schoolchildren had to be excluded from the research because there was no time to obtain the permission necessary to include them, he said. However, children are known to be efficient vehicles for spreading germs.
Almost 1600 adults from Glasgow and the east of Scotland gave blood samples for the study, which is detailed in the scientific journal PLoS One. Of the participants, 44% were carrying antibodies to swine flu. Around three-quarters of them are thought to have caught the pan-demic strain, with most of the rest having immunity from vaccination and a small proportion being immune because of exposure to similar flu strains years earlier.
Professor Woolhouse said the research showed around half those given the flu vaccine in Scotland during the winter of 2009-10 would already have had the flu.
The research suggests it may be worth concentrating vaccination and publicity about good hy-giene practices in deprived areas at the start of a new pandemic.
People living in close proximity to each other and large families living in one household are thought to explain the greater spread of swine flu in Scotland’s poorest communities.
NHS agency Health Protection Scotland (HPS) conducts flu surveillance every winter and collaborated on the research.
Dr Jim McMenamin, consultant epidemiologist for HPS, said the findings of the study echoed earlier work in England. He added that groups involving the UK Department of Health are already looking at the possibility of testing the wider population for flu antibodies in the event of another pandemic.
A spokeswoman for the Scottish Government said: “Scotland’s flu surveillance systems are some of the best in the world. Health Protection Scotland is currently looking at how these methods can be improved further – including early detection and testing for antibodies.”
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