Willie Bain’s successful retention of the seat, with the added boost of a swing from the SNP, will be a considerable relief to the Labour Party, but to claim it as the catalyst for a renewed belief in Labour’s ability to win a fourth term, as Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy did, owes more to opportunistic politicking than confident calculation.

Glasgow North East has too many unique features to be a bellwether constituency, either for Scotland or the UK. Despite significant measures to improve work prospects, such as the new campus for North Glasgow College (on the shortlist for this year’s Best Building in Scotland Award), levels of deprivation remain stubbornly ingrained. The rate of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance is the highest in Scotland at 7.1% of the workforce and more people claim Incapacity Benefit or Severe Disablement Allowance than constitute Mr Bain’s majority of 8111.

This legacy of the unemployment which followed the end of heavy engineering should be working its way out as the population ages, yet half the people in the constituency had no educational qualifications at the last census in 2001.

Because it is in the nature of by-elections that they are a more reliable gauge of unhappiness with the incumbent government than of voting intentions at the next election, Labour ought to be justified in claiming that its

victory, with a 60% share of the vote, is an endorsement of Gordon Brown’s embattled premiership. There are two serious difficulties with that.

One is the poor turnout and the other is the issues on which the election was fought. The turnout, at 32.9% a record low for a Scottish by-election, meant that 67% of the electorate did not think it worthwhile to step into a polling station and take part in the democratic process.

That might be a reflection of the general disillusionment with politics in the wake of the expenses scandal, which had a particular local resonance in causing the resignation of the previous MP, Michael Martin, as Speaker, thus triggering the by-election. However, disgust at Mr Martin’s role in perpetuating the system of entitlement appears to have been cancelled out by anger among his constituents that he was forced out by snobbery.

Although this was an election for the UK parliament, it was largely fought at a parochial level over policies that are decided at Holyrood or even in Glasgow City Chambers. Despite deep concern across the UK over the mounting death toll in Afghanistan and the growing effects of the recession, Labour’s success was built on claims that the SNP Scottish Government was neglecting Glasgow, with the scrapping of the Glasgow Airport Rail Link as the main evidence for the prosecution.

Even on that subject, however, there was less engagement with the arguments than with the tactic of attacking the incumbent administration. Therefore, it provided no indication of how any of the parties will contest the major issues and, in particular, how Labour will defend its record in government.

The high profile achieved by the British National Party in the campaign brought an alarming new dimension to a Scottish by-election. That it was only a whisker away from achieving 5% of the vote and only 62 votes behind the Tories is a significant warning to all the mainstream parties that worries over levels of immigration cannot be ignored.

It would be a mistake to attribute the size of the BNP vote to the publicity it received from the controversy over the leader’s appearance on Question Time.

The third place achieved by the Tory candidate, Ruth Davidson, was highly creditable in a seat which will always be a lost cause for her party, and suggests that their performance at Holyrood may be gaining a little traction.

That two-thirds of the electorate saw no point in voting – despite a choice of 13 candidates – means that whatever conclusions the party activists draw from this contest, it cannot form a reliable basis for a General Election strategy. It does, however, require a very serious reflection by all political parties about how they convince the electorate of their relevance.