THE number of empty shops is rising, retail sales are falling, but there is some good news on the high street after a new survey on the financial health of retailers found Scotland is performing better than most of England.
The Retail Risk Index, which is compiled by property consultants BNP Paribas Real Estate, measures which parts of the country are most vulnerable to retailers collapsing or closing, and which are best placed to withstand a weaker economy.
The index, which looked at 100 towns and cities including Inverness, Dundee, Glasgow, Edinburgh and Aberdeen, rated Scotland as one of the areas that was least at risk of retail collapse among the 11 examined, behind only Greater London and East Anglia.
Claire Higgins, head of research at BNP Paribas Real Estate, told The Herald yesterday the results were very positive for Scotland.
She said: "The south of England stands out as being quite strong but there's a big fat red band across Wales and the north of England and then a sunny yellow Scotland at the top. So there is a north-south divide but Scotland is not part of that – Scotland is doing better on average than much of England."
Ms Higgins said the positive picture for Scotland was partly because of the relative isolation of its retail centres – whereas many English towns and cities were suffering because of nearby competitors.
She said: "One thing that came out of the research was that a city is often most at risk because they have a dominant neighbour – that's not an issue for Glasgow and Edinburgh because they are not directly competing with each other."
The BNP Paribas index uses a number of measures such as shop vacancy rates and the number of charity shops.
On this measure, Inverness made the top 10 of cities judged least vulnerable to retail problems. It was ranked 93rd out of the 100 cities measured, with 100 being least at risk and number one being most at risk. Only the top 10 and bottom 10 have been made public. Ms Higgins said the strength of Inverness had a lot to do with the fact the Highland capital was relatively isolated and serving the local community well.
Another positive factor the research identifies in favour of Inverness is the fact there has been no large-scale development in the city.
Ms Higgins said some cities had been hit by the development of shopping centres that had sucked retail away from other areas. Aberdeen's Union Street has suffered in this way as retailers have moved to the new Union Square centre.
She said: "What often happens is that retailers will move from an existing location into a new development and the area that is left behind becomes less attractive, possibly because of high vacancy.
"It's not necessarily that development is always a bad thing but it can often have a negative impact on the town centre as it was before."
The BNP Paribas results came in the same week as disappointing figures on retail sales and occupancy rates on the high street.
The Office for National Statistics recorded a 0.8% fall in retail sales by volume in February.
The number of empty shops also hit an all-time high last month, according to figures from the Local Data Company. Town centre vacancy rates rose to an average of 14.6% in February, from 14.5% in January.
Glasgow Chamber of Commerce chief executive Stuart Patrick said in response to the report last night: "Our experience is that Glasgow city centre is continuing to hold up very well and, we believe, will be one of the long-term winners of the consolidation of the UK's retail offering."
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