The current "pause" in global warming is not unexpected and does not alter the overall picture of rising temperatures, climate scientists have said.

Heat going into the deep ocean is part of the reason global average surface temperatures have risen at a lower rate in the past 10 to 15 years than previous decades, experts said.

Recent low solar activity and volcanic eruptions, which send particles into the atmosphere that reflect heat, have also contributed to a slowing in temperature rises, while natural climate variations also play a 
part.

Global warming has not stopped but the average rate of warming was just 0.04°C per decade between 1998 
and 2012, compared with 0.17°C per decade from 1970-1998.

Recent measurements of deep-ocean temperatures indicate heat is being absorbed at lower levels, which the researchers suggest could be due to a period of more circulation within the ocean.

However, Met Office experts and climate scientists said periods of slow-down or "pauses" in surface warming are not unusual in temperature records and are predicted in climate models, which suggests such periods could occur at least twice a century because of natural variation.

The temperatures seen in recent years fall within the range predicted, and if models for future rises take into account temperatures from the last 10 years, then most likely warming is reduced by 10%, the experts said. This would mean the world would see rises of 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures, beyond which the worst impacts of climate change are expected to occur, and only around five to 10 years later than currently predicted.

Professor Piers Forster, at Leeds University, said: "If we do continue on this emissions trajectory we're currently on, we'll reach 2°C in 2060 or so."

Dr Peter Stott, of the Met Office Hadley Centre, said: "We expect to get periods of slower warming.

"This is absolutely what we expect."