A year on from the global economic crash, a determinedly upbeat Gordon Brown is prepared to tell the TUC conference in Liverpool tomorrow that the worst is over and declare that "we are on the road to recovery".
In a speech, the Prime Minister will warn trade unions not to put the recovery at risk with a Tory government, which is an uncoded plea for them not to cause trouble for Labour in the run-up to a General Election.
"Things are still fragile, not automatic, and the recovery needs to be nurtured," Mr Brown will say. "People’s livelihoods and homes and savings are still hanging in the balance, and so don’t put the recovery at risk."
Delegates gathering for the 141st annual congress want to make a strong show of defending their members from swingeing public-sector cuts expected regardless of which party wins the looming election battle.
Mr Brown will remind his audience of the "tough choices" the government made in the wake of Lehman Brother’s collapse last September which precipitated the crisis in the banking system. But his rhetoric on the equally tough choices in future public spending, a euphemism for cuts and privatisation in the eyes of the unions, was met head on by trade union leaders gathering in Liverpool, the scene of some of the worst civil unrest during the recession of the early 1990s.
Brendan Barber, the TUC general-secretary, warned that spending cuts, now accepted as inevitable by all political parties, would plunge the country into civil unrest and create a "double dip" recession.
"The last time we suffered slash and burn economics we had riots on the streets here in Liverpool," said Mr Barber. "I make no prediction that this would happen again but I do know that prolonged mass unemployment will have terrible effects on social cohesion."
The TUC general-secretary, warned that a 10% reduction in the workforce would push unemployment over four million. Trade union leaders are to use their week in Liverpool to press the case that their members should not suffer for the debacle in the banking sector.
"The bonus culture continues while ordinary working people area being made victims of this recession," said David Prentice, leader of Unison. "Barclays are looking at bonuses of £200m this year alone. Our government has the means to make sure that the banks contribute to paying back the £141bn that has been pumped into the sector, and that includes controlling bonuses."
On the anniversary of the banking collapse John McFall MP, the chairman of the Treasury Select Committee, has proposed a banking commission that would give a voice to the public and put Britain at the forefront of banking reform.
Mr McFall said there was not enough focused effort on reshaping banking and that there was a danger of industry self-regulation being allowed to re-assert itself.
"The focus has been on bonuses but that does not deal with the basics of banks being too big and stopping asset bubbles being created again," said Mr McFall. "The business model is broken, there needs to be a reassessment of banking and such is the public anger over the issue that the voice of people who use banks has to be heard in designing a new system. It must not be left to bankers themselves."
Mr McFall said that he saw the banking crisis in three phases -- the crash, the recovery that was proceeding apace and the third phase, which would be about creating a resilient banking system for the future. "There is a role for the public voice in this and a banking commission would give people that important role."
TUC leaders yesterday pledged to "resist" any move towards public sector job cuts, ranging from strikes to standing candidates for parliament.
Mark Serwotka, the Public and Commercial Services Union general-secretary, called for proportional representation for Westminster elections to break the political consensus around the need for public-sector cuts.
He said the SNP administration in Holyrood, which has given a guarantee of no compulsory redundancies in the public sector, was the product of progressive politics and a better voting system. "No ministers in Whitehall have done the same thing," Mr Serwotka said to embarrass Labour Ministers.
The more pro-establishment Unison leader Mr Prentice summed up the debate in the upper echelons of the Labour movement when he acknowledged that there was a case for some universal benefits to become means tested and for Labour to appeal to its core voters to win a fourth term. "They’ve got to get back on the side of working people, If they do that they still have a chance to win the election."
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