PEACE of a kind was declared in Pakistan's capital Islamabad yesterday when Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani chaired a meeting of the country's defence committee to discuss new rules on co-ordinating with US and Nato forces in Afghanistan.
At the end of a week of recriminations between the government and the army it was the first time Gilani, below, had been in the same room as the head of the army, General Ashfaq Kayani and both are said to have behaved impeccably.
It is, though, only a temporary truce. Never far from a state of crisis, Pakistan is once more hovering on the brink of political implosion as the ruling Pakistan People's Party (PPP) administration faces a week which will decide its immediate future. Tomorrow the National Assembly will debate a resolution placing "full confidence and trust" in the country's political leadership, and while that vote of confidence will probably be won there is a growing perception that Gilani and his colleagues are so enmeshed in internal power struggles that they are now incapable of running the country.
It is a sign of Pakistan's chronic instability that in its 64-year existence no civilian government has ever manged to complete its five-year term and things are looking extremely bleak for the current PPP administration. As ever, the stumbling block is the poor relationship between it and the army – it is no secret that the army has become disenchanted with Asif Ali Zardari's presidency.
While senior officers are playing down the idea of an immediate coup, the army still plays a key role in Pakistani politics and rumours and mistrust abound. The most serious incident concerns the so-called "memo-gate" – the revelation that Zardari approved a secret, unsigned memo to the US government seeking help to contain the generals to prevent them mounting a coup.
Its revelation at the end of last year sparked the current crisis. Pakistan's ambassador to Washington DC resigned in the aftermath, but the matter is still under scrutiny by the Supreme Court, whose chief justice, Mohammad Iftikhar Chaudhry, has a reputation for a tough stance on senior politicians suspected of corruption.
What makes this worse is that Kayani bypassed official channels by presenting an affidavit to the Supreme Court alleging the memo was a treasonous act and then briefed journalists about "potentially dangerous consequences" if the problem was not resolved.
On Friday, the stakes were raised again when Gilani was forced to deny a report that he had called Britain's high commissioner to Islamabad seeking British help to pre-empt a military coup. Gilani also denounced any attempt by the military to involve itself in government and told the people of Pakistan that the choice was between "democracy and dictatorship". That might come sooner than he thinks – and it might not need the intervention of the army.
Although history points to Kayani losing patience, a military takeover is not inevitable. For all that the army remains a powerful factor in Pakistani politics, its stock is not especially high among the wider public.
Firstly, there is the unexplained ability of US special forces to enter Pakistani territory to assassinate al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden last year, and secondly there are lingering suspicions that senior officers have been aiding Taliban operations in neighbouring Afghanistan, a policy that has attracted missile attacks by US drones on Pakistani targets. Kayani and his fellow senior officers might prefer to see Zardari being prosecuted by the Supreme Court, not just because of "memo-gate" but also on longstanding charges of corruption.
It might work. For all that Zardari was elected on a wave of emotion following the assassination of his wife, Benazir Bhutto, in December 2007, those sentiments have largely evaporated.
This weekend he remains an embattled figure following a surprise trip to Dubai to attend a wedding or to have a medical check-up – both have been offered as a reason for his absence. Although Zardari returned safely he and the PPP will do well to survive the current crisis and an early election now seems inevitable.
If so, former president General Pervez Musharraf will almost certainly end his self-imposed exile in London and enter the lists, as will former cricketer Imran Khan, a sudden favourite of Pakistan's establishment.
The other main contender will be Nawaz Sharif, a former prime minister and leader of the Pakistan Muslim League, who spent yesterday with the main opposition party leaders to discuss their position in tomorrow's vote. After the talks, Sharif said they would move cautiously to avoid any "silly confrontation", but he also stated his belief that elections are the only way to end the stand-off between the government and army.
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