Republicans may stand in the way of Cuba rapprochement

For Cuba, change after 53 years of communist rule may be a difficult thing, not least for the party's leadership. But for President Obama, it means a showdown with Republicans in Congress still steeped in the language of the Cold War, egged on by the descendants of the very people the Castro brothers Fidel and Raul, overthrew half a century ago. Some of them are Republican politicians themselves.

After last week's talks the US Assistant Secretary of States Roberta Jacobson, head of the US delegation, said she had "pressed" the Cuban government for improved human rights conditions. Josefina Vidal, head of the Cuban delegation, said the word "pressure" was not used and "in any case Cuba has shown throughout its history that it has not and will not bow to pressure wherever it may come from".

Jacobson's visit was the highest-ranking by a US official in 35 years. Though no date has yet been set for further talks, these are certain to take place. Vidal saw the outcome of the talks as a positive step for both countries.

"I see a better future for our countries. We are neighbours with profound differences but we have seen how countries with profound differences can coexist peacefully, in a civilised manner, seeking to find solutions to common problems and thus contribute to the well being of the rest of the world."

This was beyond the usual exchange of platitudes following such meetings and brought with it a sense that these were indeed talks held in good faith with a real chance of ending half a century of mistrust between two countries with sharply different political, economic and social agendas.

Obama has said he will continue to urge Congress to lift the embargo. In return, Washington is looking for the early lifting of restrictions on the movement of its diplomats, with a restoration of full diplomatic relations to follow within months. It is also calling for Cuba to hand over US fugitives.

The US Secretary of State, John Kerry, said last week he is prepared to meet the Cuban Foreign Minister, Bruno Rodriguez.

"When it is timely, when it is appropriate, I look forward to travelling to Cuba in order to formally open an embassy and begin to move forward."

But "moving forward" is likely to be difficult. Though Jacobson said restoring relations was "not overly cumbersome", the Cuban regime is notoriously slow at introducing reforms, while US Republicans have made clear they are not prepared to contemplate lifting the trade embargo unless Havana makes visible progress on democracy, releases opponents of the regime and satisfies the claims of US citizens and firms whose property was expropriated after the 1959 revolution.

Although the US has welcomed the recent release of 53 Cuban prisoners as a "very positive development", it insists that their release has "not resolved the larger human rights problems on the island''. Cuba says it has a different perspective on human rights and its negotiators expressed concern over recent police killings of unarmed black men in Ferguson, Missouri, and New York City.

Right from the start the talks ran into trouble over immigration, with the deputy US negotiator, Alex Lee, saying his country would not budge on the preferential treatment granted Cuban immigrants over other nationalities.

The Cubans have acknowledged that President Obama will need Congress's backing to change immigration laws, but have called for a change in the way these laws are implemented. They argue that the Cuban Adjustment Act, under which Cubans are granted US residency after they have been in the US for a year and one day, encourages people trafficking. They also want the US to scrap its so-called "wet foot-dry foot" policy, under which Cubans found on US land are allowed to stay while those picked up at sea are turned away.

Another US programme, which Cuba has branded a "reprehensible brain drain practise", encourages Cuban doctors to defect to the US, even from third countries. They need only apply for residency at any US embassy, and over 1,000 Cuban doctors did so last year.

Yet another sticking point is the US's list of sponsors of international terrorism.

"It makes little sense to seek to restore relations as long as we are on that list," Vidal said. The US State Department has said it is already reviewing Cuba's case.

While there is still much to divide the two countries, observers noted that both sides have much to gain from a thaw.

"I think this is a case in which both sides had strong reasons to engage," Wayne Smith of the liberal Washington-based Centre for International Policy told the Sunday Herald.

"US policy had, in a sense, run its course. The US is now the country that is isolated - it was the only one in the hemisphere that did not have diplomatic and trade relations with Cuba and with the Summit of Americas coming up in April, it faced an embarrassing situation.

"As for Cuba, it also needed change. It had relied first on Russia for help, but the Russian economy no longer inspires confidence. And neither does Venezuela, Cuba's more recent economic helpmate."

Not that Russia's President Vladimir Putin has given up hope of reinvigorating his country's ties with its Cold War partner. The day before the historic talks began a Russian spy ship, the Viktor Leonov CCB-175, docked in Havana. It had done so before, most recently in March last year, and US diplomats said they saw nothing alarming about its presence, but the timing of the spy ship's arrival could not have been coincidental. Last year Russia reached an agreement to reopen a Cold War spy base in Lourdes, south of Havana, which Putin had closed in 2001 mainly for economic reasons. The reopening of the base, only 150 miles off the Florida coast, was ostensibly in return for Russia's writing off of 90 per cent of Cuba's Soviet-era debts, worth £18 billion.

But this was before the current Russian economic crisis, and the move is now generally thought to have been a largely symbolic gesture - Cubans know that this particular chapter in their country's history is over.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the severing of its lifeline with Moscow, Cubans lived through what became known as the Periodo Especial (special

period) during which the Cuban economy contracted by 35 per cent, leading to severe hardship with shortages of medicines, food and fuel. This is still the case, to a lesser extent.

Venezuela's former President Hugo Chavez, a staunch supporter of Fidel Castro and his revolution, came to the rescue in the late 1990s, more than satisfying Cuba's oil needs in return for Havana's assistance in health care, a programme that saw thousands of Cuban doctors dispatched to Venezuela's shanty towns.

But Cuba found itself again dependent on an outside friend, and, following the death of Chavez two years ago and with a mismanaged Venezuelan economy left reeling by the collapse of global oil prices, the special relationship between the two countries looks decidedly tenuous. Cuba needed to diversify its economy and find new partners.

China, another key player in Cuba's recent history, may unwittingly have helped make the US stance look even more anachronistic than it already was. China has a stake in Cuban nickel mining and oil exploration, and has supplied the island with trains, cars and buses, but it has enjoyed a growing presence throughout Latin America regardless of a country's political persuasion, so its relationship with Cuba should be seen as pragmatic rather than ideological. As the US has enjoyed healthy trade relations with both China and Vietnam for years, continuing to cold-shoulder Cuba alone among communist led countries has begun to look increasingly bizarre.

Canada, which maintained diplomatic ties with Cuba after the US broke off relations in 1961, has long played a role in relations between Cuba and other countries. Fidel Castro attended the funeral of former Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau in 2000, and Canadian businesses have invested in the Cuban tourism industry and nickel mining.

Spanish companies have several hotels in Cuba and the US hotel companies Hilton and Marriott are said to be prepared to invest in Cuba if travel restrictions are lifted. However, any opening up of Cuba to American tourists will have implications for other countries in the region. According to a 2011 IMF report, there would be a "seismic shift" in the Caribbean's tourism industry, with thousands of Americans choosing to visit Havana rather than other popular but pricier destinations like Cancun in Mexico and the US Virgin Islands. On the other hand, Canadian tourists, for whom Cuba has long been a favourite destination, may be diverted to other resorts if prices should rise in Cuba once travel restrictions for Americans are eased. This in turn would benefit other Caribbean countries.

Some Cubans fear a return to the years before the 1959 Revolution, when Cuba was considered an American "playground", with thousands of Americans arriving by plane or ferry from Key West for weekends spent on the beaches of Varadero and in Havana's US mafia-run casinos. Others, however, see the potential that a boost in tourism would bring to the country and their lives.

Cuba told the US delegation that it was prepared to accept badly needed investment from US telecommunications companies and cooperate in the fight against drug trafficking, terrorism and diseases like Ebola. Still, the Republican dominated US Congress has yet to be convinced.

The Centre for International Policy's Smith said that while he expected travel and some trade to open up rather quickly, "lifting the embargo will doubtless be difficult and will take some time, especially with a Republican Congress. But the Cuban people are delighted, and so are most Americans, with the exception of a few die-hards in Miami".

One such "die-hard" is Florida Republican Senator Marcos Rubio, the American born son of Cuban immigrants, who on Friday told aides he was preparing to launch a bid for the US presidency. In a letter to Kerry last week Rubio wrote: "There are thousands of verified American claimants who have been waiting for decades to be compensated for the Castro regime's illegal expropriation of their property and assets. There are also billions of dollars in outstanding judgements from US federal courts against the Cuban government for acts of terrorism. It has long been the intent of US law that these issues must be resolved prior to normalisation of relations."

However, there are signs that other hardliners are preparing for change. As the US delegations met, Florida's Miami-Dade County Commission, concerned about the trafficking of Cubans from Colombia and other countries, agreed to ask Congress to revise the US's lenient residency law for Cuban exiles. It may only be a request, but the Miami Herald said it was telling that the proposal came from Commissioner Bruno Barreiro, a Republican and son of Cuban immigrants who became US residents under the law's generous terms.

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