Analysis by Max Boot
KREMLINGATE, the scandal involving the Trump campaign’s possible ties to Russia, has already led to the firing of the FBI director, the appointment of a special counsel and hints that the President may sack the special counsel, too. Naturally this has prompted comparisons to Watergate.
But the comparison is unfair – to Richard Nixon.
President Trump’s situation is much more serious. He isn’t just accused of covering up a “third-rate burglary”, as White House spokesman Ron Ziegler described the break-in at the Democratic National Committee’s headquarters 45 years ago this month.
He’s being investigated for possibly obstructing an investigation into his associates. And they are being investigated for Russia connections as a result of a far more extensive break-in into the computer systems of the DNC and the Hillary Clinton campaign that was perpetrated by Russian agents.
The wiretapping of the DNC, even if successful, would not have had much impact on the 1972 election, which Nixon won in a landslide. The 2016 election was much closer – decided by just 80,000 votes in three states – and Mr Trump touted the Clinton campaign emails released by WikiLeaks non-stop during the last month of the campaign. The Russian intervention could well have changed the course of US history.
Trump openly applauded this Russian assault on democracy. That’s bad enough. What we don’t know yet is whether he was involved in secret deals with the Russians, which would be tantamount to treason. But there is still no proof, either, that Nixon personally ordered the Watergate break-in. As Nixon famously said: “It’s not the crime that gets you … it’s the cover up.”
Mr Trump, who has said that he was thinking about “this Russia thing” when he fired James Comey, is now discovering the truth of those words.
Nixon’s position became untenable after the release on August 5, 1974, of the “smoking gun” tape, in which he said he wanted to use the CIA to pressure the FBI into ending the Watergate investigation. Three days later, Nixon resigned.
The equivalent conversation for Mr Trump became public June 6 when The Washington Post reported that the President had asked his CIA director and director of national intelligence to pressure the FBI to end its investigation into former national security adviser Michael Flynn. Mr Trump also told NBC News that he fired Mr Comey to stop the investigation into the “Russia thing”.
Yet Republicans remain foursquare behind the President.
Most Republicans were willing to excuse the Watergate break-in and cover up, spinning the scandal as a media creation. Senator Bob Dole, then chairman of the Republican National Committee, opined: “The greatest political scandal of this campaign is the brazen manner in which, without benefit of clergy, The Washington Post has set up housekeeping with the McGovern campaign.”
Republican support for Nixon fell from a high of 90 per cent at the start of the Senate Watergate Committee hearings in 1973 but never dropped below 50 per cent even as his approval among the general public fell to a low of 24 per cent.
Mr Trump also has terrible approval ratings among the public at large (38 per cent) but, like Nixon, he is keeping the support of most of his base – 72 per cent of Republicans still approve of Mr Trump. That number is crucial because of the biggest difference between the 1970s and today: Back then, Democrats controlled both houses of Congress, so they could initiate impeachment proceedings with little or no Republican support. Today, Republicans run Congress, and they have shown little enthusiasm for pursuing the Kremlingate probe.
Even special counsel Robert Mueller, who is leading the investigation into Russia’s meddling in the US election and possible collusion with the Trump campaign, uncovers convincing evidence that Mr Trump tried to obstruct justice – or if Mr Trump fires Mr Mueller – a sitting president probably cannot be indicted.
The only real remedy is impeachment. It is unlikely, however, that the House would initiate such proceedings unless Democrats win control in 2018.
In the summer of 1974, a critical mass of Republicans finally decided they could no longer defend Nixon.
“There are only so many lies you can take,” Senator Barry Goldwater of Arizona said on August 6. “And now there has been one too many. Nixon should get his ass out of the White House — today!”
Mr Trump’s fate depends on how many lies today’s Republicans can swallow. So far, there is no indication that they have had their fill, but it is still early: 447 days elapsed between the appointment of special prosecutor Archibald Cox on May 18, 1973, and Nixon’s resignation on August 8, 1974.
We are less than 40 days past May 17, the day Mr Mueller accepted the same role.
This article first appeared in our sister paper USA Today.
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel