Why we should worry about what Syria means for our holidays

Earlier this year tabloid stories of British visitors vexed with Syrian refugees on Greek beaches were met with shrill derision on social media. And rightly so.

But conflict in Syria and Iraq - and wider spread of Islamist terror - really is having an impact on tourism, specifically on where Europeans take their breaks. Bluntly, we are shunning the Islamic world.

The consequences of this are already grave.

The short-term impact is obvious: unemployment.

Take Tunisia. About one in seven jobs in the country were in tourism last year. Not now. Visitor numbers are down 20 per cent since the beach killing spree this summer, pictured above.. Hotels and restaurants are laying off staff. So are their suppliers, even farms.

Egypt's Sharm al Sheikh resort - where ISIS brought down a Russian holiday jet at the end of October - is bracing itself for much the same.

Analysis: The Sunday Herald's Trevor Royle on trouble in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula

After this attack, Russia, rather slowly, stopped flights to Egypt.

Two million Russians holiday in the north African country - which is due south of Moscow - ever year.

Another three million go to Turkey. Last week - in another complication from the Syrian conflict - Russia stopped all tour operators flying to Turkey.

That, all in, is 5m visitors denied to the Turkish and Egyptian holiday sectors next year. That is huge.

Tourism has almost been weaponised.

Wreckage of Russian jet in Sinai

But it isn't just Russians who will be looking for somewhere else to go next summer.

David Cameron came under fire in Egypt for being cautious after the Russian jet was blown up, stopping British flights. These are political decisions. Diplomatic ones. And they hurt.

In other Arab or Islamic destinations commercial operators are making their own decisions.

EasyJet has announced it will drop flights to Marrakech in Morocco from Glasgow Airport in June.

Ali Gayward, the airline's boss in Scotland, said this was "because of recent terrorist activity in places like Tunisia".

People who know about terrorism say this is just what ISIS and Al-Qaeda and other extremists want. Economic decline is good for them. So too is the wider disconnection between Europe and the Middle East.

Because the consequences of holidaymakers staying away from Arab North Africa are not just economic.

A warning: I am going to sound wishy-washy about tourism. That is because I think - despite its terrible green credentials and sometimes ghastly homogeneity - it can be a force for good.

Let's not pretend that every visitor who flopped on a sunbed in Sousse or Sharm got huge insights in to the Arab world.

Or that they reciprocate Arab hospitality when refugees knock at our doors seeking shelter. But long-term mass tourism does build affinity. And it can spread ideas, even liberal ideas.

Clever people, for example, make a case that sunbathing North Europeans on the beaches of the Costas helped 1970s Spain emerge from the shadow of fascist dictatorship.

Equally, it is hard to view a place where you spend your summers - or winters - as alien, dangerous or, well, bombable.

There is already a gulf of understanding between Europe and the Islamic world already. Without holidaymakers, it is going to get worse.