I’ve just returned from a friend’s wedding anniversary in Estonia. In the 20 years since I first visited the country, the change has been remarkable. Then it was only five years out of the Soviet yoke and the pall of communism hung over it. Now it’s a vibrant country that has embraced and profited from the EU. Another example of a small nation benefiting from membership. Something yet for Scotland to learn.
Its moved from nearly becoming Leningrad West through Russian colonisation, to almost seeming to be Helsinki South with the number of Finns coming across the Gulf of Finland to enjoy the lower cost of living and cheaper alcohol. As a part of the Schengen agreement, accessing the country through Stockholm and exiting via Brussels was straightforward. It’s probably best known in Scotland, if not for football matches, then by those who have been on a Baltic cruise where the capital city of Tallinn is a regular port; and through its invention of Skype which has gone global.
Its economy is vibrant and it has joined the Euro with no discernible issues. On independence and leaving the Russian rouble it established its own currency, initially tied to the Deutschemark and then the Euro; before finally joining the single currency. Evidence that several options are open to Scotland should it decide to confirm its EU vote to remain. All in all, great credit to Estonians for their enterprise and the EU for assimilating them.
It was ironic then that I arrived following the Brexit vote but prior to the arrival of 650 British soldiers being despatched there as part of a new Nato deployment on the Russian borders. It seems a strange order of priorities to deny young Estonians the right to work within UK borders that could enhance our economy but sending British troops to be stationed on Estonian borders which could be the prelude to World War 3. Yet, that is where we currently stand in the UK.
My friend there is a Scot married to an Estonian. His daughter is in turn married to a Swede. She told me that she spoke Estonian to her children and their father spoke Swedish. Between them and in the presence of the children they spoke English. Those children will go up not just bilingual but trilingual even before they start learning languages in school. Surely they’re the sort of people who would add great value to our society never mind our economy.
Meanwhile, the troop deployment is part of a significantly increased Nato presence on Europe’s borders with Russia. Tornado fighters from Scotland have already been there on rotation. US troops are going to Poland, German to Lithuania and Canadian forces to Latvia.
This all plays into Vladimir Putin’s agenda of a western attack being imminent and deep-rooted Russian fears of invasion held from the days of the Mongol hordes through Napoleon and Hitler. That was confirmed talking to another Estonian married to a Scot but with relatives in Russia. She said her relations believed they were under threat and doubted reassurances that all was peaceful. However, when war planes land and troops are based it’s hard to maintain that comfort. The strategy of the New Cold Warriors is to address any Russian threat by ensuring an incursion brings in not just the border states but the western powers. Obviously, 650 soldiers are insufficient to stop a Russian attack but would be enough to bring the UK into the conflict. They’d be expendable as the 51st Highland division was in the Second World War.
Mr Putin’s Russia is a menacing state as shown in Crimea, Ukraine and Syria. There have been incursions into European countries airspace and territorial waters, as well as cyberattacks and the fermenting of disorder amongst Russian minorities in some states. Estonia and others can’t be left to the fate of the Baltic States or Finland in the Second World War; to either acquiesce meekly to a takeover or fight alone.
That does mean some level of military readiness and support. However, surrounding Russia is counterproductive and is leading to a return of the Cold War albeit with barriers now well beyond the Berlin Wall. Visiting the Museum of Occupation in Tallinn, it was clear the Soviets had departed peacefully from Estonia in 1991 more to due to social and economic problems from within Russia than the threat from without. Sanctions on Russia are biting and with the price of oil remaining low the economic problems are mounting.
Its surely better to improve the Estonian economy from within the EU than simply arm against threats from outside it, which makes the Brexit vote and troop deployment even more perverse. For me and many others the old EU is much preferable to the new Cold War.
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