A GREAT deal of angst and uncertainty has followed the election of Donald Trump, not least because it is difficult to know exactly what policies he will actually pursue. During the campaign he made sweeping promises about building a wall to limit immigration, locking up his opponent and dismantling trade agreements.

Since, he has backtracked on some, flip-flopped on others, and his truncated Twitter proclamations are often indecipherable. While we have learned some things from his choice of cabinet members, his political career is so limited that we have virtually no track record as a guide to his position on major policies.

This means we must rely more on his character and experience as they might affect his political choices. Two key factors are central: his business experience (and political inexperience) and his drive for power. Mr Trump thinks like a businessman. He has claimed that he will be seeking “better deals” with North American Free Trade Agreement, the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement, the Chinese and others. Perhaps he will succeed, but the political costs are likely to be high and, unlike an economic “bottom line”, difficult to measure.

History has shown that it is rare for businessmen to be successful political leaders, especially when they lack the kind of control over the political process they enjoyed in the private sector. In business it’s the art of the deal but, in politics, it’s the art of the possible. Constituents aren’t customers and success can’t be measured in price minus costs.

Politics often forces leaders to stick to a commitment even when its costs are soaring because reneging reduces your subsequent credibility and can put your allies in perilous political positions. Mr Trump is demanding that Nato allies contribute more financially. This makes business sense but fails to account for the politically complex dynamics of alliances.

Beyond experience, character also matters. On virtually every measure of character and suitability to be president, Hillary Clinton outdid Mr Trump, suggesting the public overall didn’t think that character was too important. They were wrong.

Mr Trump seems to be motivated by a personal “need for power”. This personality trait involves enjoying controlling and influencing others; a concern for impact and prestige; pursuing formal social power; and a fair bit of narcissism. Mr Trump wants to be in control, admired, and important. He is intolerant of conflict and dissent and he lashes out at those who criticise him and challenge his position and status. His reactions to comments from Meryl Streep, his hostility toward the mainstream press and his premature blaming of the intelligence services for leaks are all illustrative.

A president’s character has a huge impact on the decision-making process and, in politics, the process of making decisions can matter as much as the decisions themselves. Lyndon B Johnson was famously bullish with his advisors, cowing some and restraining them from criticising his commitment to escalating the war in Vietnam. John F Kennedy, on the other hand, created an open space for policy advice, which served him well in helping to resolve the Cuban Missile Crisis short of nuclear war. The difference in process arguably made all the difference in outcomes. A man easily wounded who demands apologies will create hesitation from even his most independently-minded advisors.

Mr Trump’s leadership style reinforces hierarchy in small group deliberations, chilling dissent and the critical evaluation of policy options. When advisors’ participation and dissent are discouraged, creative options fail to emerge, the psychological stress of managing a crisis builds and policymakers can become stuck in their thinking, turning a manageable situation into a policy failure.

The signature cool and detached handling of foreign policy crises by Mr Obama may be replaced by the dominating and impulsive flair of Mr Trump, buttressed by his political inexperience and a penchant for simplistic bottom-line thinking. “No drama Obama” may be giving way to “Tirade Trump”. Regardless of the policies the Trump administration ultimately pursues, his characteristics and background strongly suggest an increased risk of missteps, blunders and outright fiascos.

Dr Beasley is a senior lecturer in the School of International Relations at the University of St Andrews.