NICOLA Sturgeon bought herself a limited amount of time last year when she hit reset on her Government’s plan for a second independence referendum.
Casting a sorrowful eye over the general election result, which saw the SNP lose around 500,000 votes, the First Minister announced that the plan for a second vote by spring 2019 was being shelved.
She said she would not “immediately” seek to introduce referendum legislation and promised an update in the autumn. The clock is ticking.
Sturgeon’s u-turn demonstrates the havoc Brexit is causing inside the SNP and to the Yes movement’s ultimate constitutional objective.
The SNP leader, in common with everyone else in the UK, has little conception of what Brexit will look like and is struggling to frame independence as an alternative to a blank bit of paper.
EXCLUSIVE: Sturgeon ally calls on the SNP to back a Brexit referendum
Noel Dolan, a Sturgeon loyalist who served her in Government for nearly a decade, has sketched out a plausible Plan B for his former boss. He believes the SNP, in the short term, should back a referendum on the final Brexit deal, rather than indyref 2.
His argument is logical. The SNP could claim that stopping Brexit, rather than securing independence, is the top priority for the next twelve months. Sturgeon could argue that leaving the EU will be a disaster, not just for Scotland, but for the whole of UK. Hence the requirement for another referendum.
By putting herself at the head of a cross-party coalition, she would put pressure on Labour’s euro-sceptic leadership and help change the terms of the debate on a second vote, which has so far been dominated by the Lib Dems and Tony Blair.
If, as is entirely possible, the call for another referendum fails, she could claim to have tried to reverse Brexit and push ahead with a revised timetable for another independence vote.
Tactical and strategic advantages also present themselves for Sturgeon. Given that 62% of voters in Scotland backed Remain, fronting a campaign to demand a Brexit vote would be popular and chime with the majority. By contrast, Sturgeon is currently on the wrong side of public opinion on indyref 2.
Trying to reverse Brexit would also alter perceptions of her Government, which angered moderate Unionist voters by using their Remain votes as a pretext of taking Scotland out of the UK. By working with the Lib Dems and moderate Labour figures, Sturgeon could store up credit in the event of a second independence vote.
However, in the age of Brexit, no constitutional option is hassle-free. Over a third of SNP supporters are believed to have voted to leave the EU, so supporting another referendum could alienate a chunk of her core support. And while her MSPs and MPs would like to stop Brexit, independence is their true love.
Sturgeon is at a crossroad. Her political opponents complain she is dividing the country by dangling the prospect of indyref2 in front of voters. Equally, her natural supporters are growing frustrated at the lack of vision her tired administration is offering. Backing a Brexit vote could please a sizeable number on both sides.
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