HISTORIANS are fond of giving significant events titles. As 2016 comes to a close, perhaps in future decades they will look back on events of the last few days and decide that the world was living through the opening salvoes of its first cyber war. Some will point out that nations have been spying on, and electronically interfering in, each other’s affairs for years.
Regardless of history’s judgment, Washington’s retaliation against Russia’s computer hacking of the US presidential election is perhaps the strongest response to state-sponsored hacking attacks in the history of the internet. It is the biggest retaliatory move against Russian espionage since the Cold War. It has profound implications both for US-Russian relations and within the American political system itself.
Critics of President Obama’s actions point to a “lame-duck” administration delivering parting shots at the 11th hour before leaving the White House. Barack Obama’s latest moves against Russian hacking are, some say, a bit like the US decision to refuse to veto the recent UN Security Council resolution 2334 demanding a halt to all Israeli settlements in the occupied Palestinian territories. In other words, too little too late
As the Obama administration’s stance on Resolution 2334 showed, the outgoing president is trying effectively to box in president-elect Donald Trump on a number of key foreign policy issues. In the case of Russia, Mr Obama is trying to constrain Mr Trump’s ability to be a closer partner with Russia, as he vowed on the campaign trail. Since the latest US sanctions were implemented by executive order, Mr Trump could theoretically reverse them in less than a month. The question then would be: at what political cost to Mr Trump and his fledgling administration?
Mr Obama’s strategy is a shrewd move and no bad thing, bringing a touch of realpolitik to a Trump team that has appeared out of touch with its foreign policy portfolio. Asked whether the US should hit Russia with sanctions, Mr Trump dismissed the idea, saying rather confusingly: “I think that computers have complicated lives very greatly. The whole age of the computer has made it where nobody knows exactly what’s going on.”
This leaves a lot to be desired. But Mr Obama has other motives in hitting back against the Kremlin and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Deterring further Russian cyberattacks is important for more than just Washington and the outgoing administration.
Other US allies, including Germany and France, worry that Russia could set its sights on their elections. Attacks on the German government have left Berlin concerned that such a campaign may already be underway.
This week too there have been reports that Russia may have hacked the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), an international rights and monitoring body that oversees the ceasefire in Ukraine.
Security experts say it is unlikely that Mr Obama’s measures will be enough to deter Russia from future meddling. They will, however, pose an immediate test for president-elect Trump and lay down a marker for America’s digital diplomacy.
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