Theresa May has enjoyed the longest opinion poll 'honeymoon' of any Conservative prime minister since the 1950s, new research has found.
Mrs May's premiership reaches the six-month mark on Friday, during which time her party has opened up an average poll lead over Labour of 14 points.
No Tory government in modern times has been in such a commanding position at this stage of a prime minister's time in office.
But pollsters have warned that the party's performance is more a reflection of Labour weakness than Tory strength, and could crumble if Brexit negotiations run into difficulty.
The Press Association has analysed the poll ratings for every government of the past 60 years precisely six months into the term of a new prime minister.
Only one government of any political colour has beaten Mrs May's current rating: the Labour administration led by Tony Blair, which had a colossal 29-point lead in the polls six months after Mr Blair took office in 1997.
By contrast, Margaret Thatcher's government was an average of five points behind in the polls, while John Major was six points down.
The Tories were one point ahead of Labour when David Cameron reached the six-month mark.
Theresa May's bumper honeymoon might not be entirely due to the public's rosy view of her or her government, however.
Martin Boon, director of research at the polling company ICM, said the current poll figures "are as much to do with the shipwrecked state of the opposition as the new occupant of 10 Downing Street".
He said: "Despite perceived confusion over Brexit, policy inactivity and the lack of personal mandate, the Prime Minister can get away with most things largely because she's not Jeremy Corbyn.
"Any objective analysis of Theresa May's succession and subsequent performance would hardly qualify her initial six months as an outstanding and historic example of a government at the height of its powers."
On the plight of Labour, he added: "Pollsters are currently engaged in a game of Play Your Cards Right, with each of us shouter 'lower' as we reveal the party's latest vote share. It's 24% as it stands, but who would be surprised if it edged ever closer to a calamitous 20%?"
Anthony Wells, a director of polling for YouGov, said Mrs May's poll success is highly unusual for having lasted this long.
"Honeymoon periods for new prime ministers are traditionally two to three months," he said.
"Poll leads of 12, 14, even 17 points are particularly rare for a leader who hasn't taken over at a general election.
"With the newspapers full of the NHS in crisis, and with mixed messages on the economy, you would have thought the honeymoon would have faded by now.
"Theresa May has been lucky in not having a strong opposition party, but the poll ratings might fall once Brexit negotiations begin - especially if the public starts to think she is either giving away too much or not being ambitious enough."
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel