IT has been dubbed the “Hotel California option” - you can check out anytime from the EU but you can never leave.
This, of course, refers to the UK Government’s so-called Irish border “back-stop” proposal to ensure continuing frictionless trade should its two preferred options – the new customs partnership[NCP] and maximum facilitation – never come to fruition.
But what is all the fuss about? No 10 repeatedly insists the back-stop will never have to be used.
But the very fact so much political angst and media attention has been spent on the contingency plan underlines how UK ministers’ tortuous deliberations on the NCP and max-fac are going absolutely nowhere; the never-to-be-used back-stop might, actually, be where we all end up.
A key detail of the contingency plan is when, if enacted, would it end?
The Government has always said it would be time-limited; ending when a new customs plan was finally agreed. But a draft composed by officials did not contain a set date.
David Davis hit the roof. The Brexit Secretary felt he was being strung along as without an end-date, the back-stop would be open-ended; indefinite. Which would mean the customs union status quo, meant to end when the transition period closes in December 2020, would go on and on. Cue the Eagles music.
Such was the level of the Davis ire, it was put about he was on the brink of resignation.
Losing your Brexit Secretary at this stage of the game would be disastrous and would threaten Theresa May’s own position.
So the Prime Minister called in the three Brexiteers – Davis, Johnson and Fox – to calm them down.
A line was inserted into the back-stop plan: “The UK expects the future arrangement to be in place by the end of December 2021 at the latest.”
In other words, a fudge. To “expect” something does not mean it will happen.
So Mr Davis won a “victory” by getting a date in the text. However, in practical terms it is meaningless jiggery-pokery.
Just to point out: December 2021 is 33 months after Brexit Day and perilously close to the run-in to the next General Election in June 2022.
Plus, there is Brussels.
Michel Barnier, the EU negotiator, questioned whether the time-limited back-stop would work.
His colleague Guy Verhofstadt, the European Parliament’s co-ordinator, went further. “A backstop that is temporary is not a backstop unless the definitive arrangement is the same as the backstop."
Which, of course, will never happen. The Brexiteers will see to that.
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