WELFARE reforms will cost Scots £1.6 billion a year, more than double previous estimates, it is claimed.

Glasgow faces the biggest loss, with the changes costing the equivalent of £650 a year for every adult of working age, according to new research.

The study, for the Scottish Parliament's Welfare Reform Committee by Sheffield Hallam University, breaks down the different changes to the benefits system by council area. It says the wealth gap between the richest and the poorest authorities will widen as a result.

The reforms alone will cost Glasgow £269 million of benefit income.

The £1.6bn figure for Scotland as a whole – the equivalent to £480 annually for every adult of working age – vastly outstrips a recent estimate by the Scottish Local Government Forum Against Poverty of £780m a year.

The research is part of a wider study of the changes in England and Wales and puts Scotland on a par with the British average – suffering less than northern England or Wales but more than the south of England.

Professors Christina Beatty and Steve Fothergill, at the university's Centre for Regional Economic and Social Research, said: "The financial losses arising from the reforms will hit the most deprived parts of Scotland hardest. Glasgow in particular, but also other older industrial areas, will feel the impact most. The loss of benefit income will have knock-on consequences for spending and thus for local employment, which will in turn add a further twist to the downward spiral."

Researchers say the biggest losses will come from reform to incapacity benefits, which will cost £500m a year. Tax credit changes will remove £300m from the pockets of claimants, with a further £290m a year to be lost, given the freeze on rises to other benefits.

Although the "bedroom tax" will have a serious impact on some households, its overall impact is only £50m, researchers found.

The paper added: "Within Scotland, however, councils covering the poorest areas are hit hardest. As a general rule, the more deprived the local authority, the greater the financial hit. Several of Scotland's older industrial areas are hit especially hard.

"Glasgow faces the biggest loss, in absolute terms and on a per capita basis. Its residents can expect to lose around £270m a year in benefit income, equivalent to £650 a year for every adult of working age in the city."

The research found some households and individuals, particularly those claiming sickness and disability benefits, will be hit by several different elements of the reforms.

A table of areas worst affected by the changes puts Glasgow at the top.

Inverclyde is second on £630 and both Dundee and West Dunbartonshire are on £600. North Ayrshire and North Lanarkshire come next on £580 and £560.

Shetland fares best on £290, followed by Aberdeenshire on £300 and Aberdeen on £330. Next come East Dunbartonshire on £340 and Orkney and East Renfrewshire, both on £350.

The Welfare Reform Committee will sit in Glasgow on April 23. Convener Michael McMahon said: "To see these numbers in black and white demonstrates just how bleak the picture is."

He said coping with disability was difficult, even if the incapacity is short lived.

It is also expensive, with the 144,000 working age adults adversely affected by incapacity benefit losing on average £3480 a year.

He said: "I don't see how this is supporting people in their time of need or helping people break out of the cycle of poverty."

Deputy convener Jamie Hepburn said: "The impact of the bedroom tax will be 50% higher in Scotland than in Great Britain as a whole.

"The changes to tax credits affect more people more significantly than the bedroom tax. If people were outraged before, imagine how they will feel after reading this research."

ROBBIE DINWOODIE