WHEN Scottish Secretary Michael Moore bandied about old Government figures recently to show that Scotland was in deficit, it was doubly familiar.

The Government Expenditure and Revenues in Scotland (GERS) statistics had been used a few months previously and the Scottish Government was quick with its response.

Michael Moore, right, claimed a fortnight ago that even allowing for oil revenue, Scotland had run up a £41 billion deficit over the past 30 years, but Scottish ministers countered that the UK position was even worse than that of Scotland, which had moved into the black in recent years.

The figures are so familiar because they have been used to beat Scots over the head ever since Michael Forsyth was the Tory Secretary of State for Scotland.

And they were used by Labour when a young strategist called Douglas Alexander, now Shadow Foreign Secretary, aimed to "engender fear" of independence by suggesting divorce would be an expensive business.

But this scare story seems to be producing a diminishing return, according to the latest Scottish Social Attitudes Survey from NatCen, the National Centre for Social Research.

The research shows that if independence made Scots £500 better off a year, 65% would back it. But if it means being £500 worse off, the result is reversed, with only 21% in favour and 66% against.

With no change in living standards, 47% are for independence and 32% opposed.

However, asked what they thought the economic consequences of Scotland leaving the UK would be, 34% thought Scots would be better off compared with 29% who thought they would fare worse, and 29% who thought it would make no difference.

Now let's look at how these numbers combine. If 63% believe we would be either better, or no worse off, under independence, then the range of those prepared to vote for it runs at between 47% and 65%.

While it is still the case that more powers for Holyrood polls ahead of outright independence, the debate and possible outcomes are becoming much more fluid.

On questions repeated since last year, those supporting independence reached 32% (up from 23% last year and the highest figure since 35% in 2005); those wanting to remain part of the UK but with some tax powers stand at 49% (from 52%); support for remaining in the UK with no tax powers is unchanged at 9%; doing away with Holyrood entirely now stands at 6% (from 10%).

Another set of figures shows a similar direction of travel, with 43% saying Holyrood should make "all the decisions for Scotland" (up from 28% last year); those wanting only defence and foreign affairs reserved to Westminster now at 29% (down from 32%); reserving taxes and benefits as well as defence and foreign policy dropped to 21% (27%); while those saying Westminster should decide everything are now down to 5% (10%).

Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University, a consultant for ScotCen, the group which conducted the poll of 1197 adults, said: "The appetite for a more powerful parliament, including independence, has grown in the past 12 months.

"However, support for independence is still no higher than it has been on previous occasions since the advent of devolution.

"If the SNP is to persuade a majority of Scots to back independence it will need to convince them of the economic case for leaving the union, and that is a debate that is still to be won or lost."

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