The opposing camps in the battle over Scottish independence will next week put forward conflicting visions of Scotland's economic future.
A new paper on financial services published by the UK Government will argue that an independent Scotland would be more vulnerable to financial shocks and exposed to the potential failures of the banking sector.
By contrast, a Scottish Government paper will say the country has the skills and resources to succeed but is being held back by the economic failures of Westminster.
Released tomorrow, the Treasury analysis suggests an independent Scotland would have an "exceptionally large banking sector" compared to the size of its economy – with assets amounting to more than 1250% of Scottish GDP – making it "more vulnerable to financial shocks and the volatility of the sector".
The paper claims the cost of bailing out the Royal Bank of Scotland in 2008 would be the equivalent of 211% of Scotland's GDP, whereas the figure for the UK's banking interventions was 76% of UK GDP.
Treasury figures also claim banking-sector liabilities would rise from £30,000 per capita for the UK to £65,000 per person in an independent Scotland.
The paper states: "This means that faced with serious banking crisis, the possibility of bank failures would pose a very serious risk to taxpayers in an independent Scotland.
"If Scotland became independent it could cause significant difficulties for financial services firms, particular around their cost of borrowing. There is a substantial area of uncertainty around the reaction of large firms to these risks."
The Treasury paper, the third being rolled out by UK ministers on what they perceive to be the benefits of Scotland staying in the UK, will be unveiled by Scottish Secretary Michael Moore and Treasury Minister Sajid Javid.
A central theme is how an independent Scotland would cope with another financial crash.
However, Finance Secretary John Swinney said the claims were far-fetched and flimsy.
He said: "This Treasury paper ... is a discredited, feeble attempt to undermine confidence in Scotland's ability to be a successful independent country – and it will not work.
"Much of the Treasury paper also seems to be based on a flawed, outdated view of the world which takes no account of the substantial banking reforms which have been ongoing across Europe since 2008. The last time the Treasury came north to scaremonger, it was the Chancellor spreading implausible stories about Scottish banknotes. This time they have dispatched their B-Team to make equally far-fetched claims."
The SNP have said that post-independence they want Scotland's financial services to be regulated in a UK-wide system. The Treasury is sceptical of this approach. Its paper states: "These proposals seems to be an attempt to recreate the benefits of the current constitutional setup, in which Scotland maintains a large and prestigious financial sector while sharing the risks with the rest of the UK.
"Notably, the case for fiscal support across international boundaries to another state would be far less clear, and would be crucially dependent on one state's taxpayers being willing to support another's.
"These proposals would also not give the government of an independent Scotland the levers it needed, particularly as the smaller partner in the partnership. Overall, these alternative approaches to managing financial risk are likely to be unappealing to both parties in the longer term, even if in practice they are deliverable, which is uncertain given the significant additional complexity they would entail."
The SNP's independence paper will focus on Scotland's potential for growth and argue that the country is being held back by the lack of decision-making powers.
Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said yesterday: "The key question this document will ask is: who would do a better job of running Scotland's economy – the people who live here or Westminster?"
"Everyone in Scotland should have the confidence in our economy to know we can be a successful independent country.
"In the coming weeks, Scotland's economic strengths, the abilities of our people, our natural resources and the opportunities Scotland can take with independence will be set out for all to see against the economic failures of Westminster that are holding us back.
"Scotland is a strong economy. Scotland's balance sheet shows that in every one of the last 30 years we have generated more tax per head than has been generated across the UK as a whole. Scotland is the third-most productive part of the UK and would be the eighth-wealthiest nation of all 34 OECD countries.
"Over the last five years the strength of Scotland's economy has ensured that as an independent nation we would be better off to the tune of £12.6 billion."
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