NORTH sea oil will make a small but significant contribution to the economy after 2050, according to a new analysis by one of the country's leading experts.
Professor Alex Kemp, of Aberdeen University, said there were no guarantees that 24 billion barrels of oil - the industry's upper estimate and a figure cited repeatedly by the Scottish Government - will be recovered from the North Sea in the decades to come.
However, he argued policies such as tax breaks should be put in place to aim for the target.
His comments were welcomed by Scotland's energy minister, Fergus Ewing, but reignited claims the Yes campaign has exaggerated the potential of the North Sea in making its case for independence.
The analysis came as Sir Ian Wood, the respected Aberdeen-based oil tycoon, warned the forecast of 24 billion barrels was "highly unlikely".
He also said Scots were being misled about the North Sea's resources, describing as an "insult" a recent report by Yes campaigner Dan Macdonald's N-56 think tank which predicted an underwater fracking boom.
His comments were backed by BP and Shell.
In his new analysis of the North Sea's long-term prospects, Aberdeen University expert Professor Kemp argued oil companies, with the right tax breaks, could extract 15 to 16.5 billion barrels of oil by 2050.
However, he said the industry would continue beyond 2050 as rising oil prices would make 125 known but currently uneconomic fields viable. They could produce a further two to 3.5 billion barrels.
Meanwhile, Sir Ian Wood, who has produced reports for both the UK and Scottish governments, said industry body Oil and Gas UK's 24 billion barrel forecase was a "highly unlikely scenario".
He added: "By basing our economy and therefore the future of our children's quality of life, public services and jobs on unrealistic recovery of reserves let alone unproven reserves is a huge gamble and the stakes are too high."
BP Chief Executive Bob Dudley backed Sir Ian's assessment. He added: "As a major investor in Scotland - now and into the future - BP believes that the future prospects for the North Sea are best served by maintaining the existing capacity and integrity of the UK."
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