There has been a strong assumption, and there continues to be one, that the next General Election is Labour’s to lose.

As Sir Keir Starmer breathlessly criss-crosses the country in his “completely ruthless” pursuit of power, trying to convince voters he is far more interesting than political pundits believe and that his party is the real change Britain needs, Rishi Sunak is hoping, as 2023 turns into 2024, circumstances will change in his favour; that, miraculously, he will machete his way through the political jungle to defy his detractors and secure a fifth consecutive term for the Conservatives.

After the duplicity of the Boris Johnson Government and the stupidity of Liz Truss’s, the political weather seemed fair for the Labour knight and his comrades to make leaps and bounds in their bid for power and for them to sail serenely into Downing Street.

Labour’s progress has indeed seen quite a turnaround following the failed Jeremy Corbyn experiment and the party’s disastrous General Election performance in 2019, its worst in 84 years.

Read more: Sunak’s migration woes could cost him General Election

However, for all the buoyancy at Labour HQ, there is a nagging doubt that the former chief prosecutor has yet to “seal the deal” with British voters. Focus groups show many still don’t really know what Sir Keir stands for.

As both parties continue to campaign ahead of the May 4 council elections in England, senior Tory figures have suggested the loss of hundreds of Conservative seats has been “priced in”. The negative post-poll fall-out could well be mitigated as the country is distracted by the delights of a long Bank Holiday weekend courtesy of King Charles’s coronation.

Recent polling has made interesting reading. One snapshot this week suggested Labour’s UK lead over the Tories was holding steady at an unchanged 16 points; 45 to 29.

Three years ago when Sir Keir became leader his party was 22 points behind the Tories. Last October, it was 25 points ahead.

The most prodigious development for the chief comrade has been the movement towards Labour in Scotland, where, for Westminster seats, the SNP’s lead over it is down to just five points; 36 to 31.

Intriguingly, the PM seems to be more popular than his party, making up significant ground on his Labour opponent in personal ratings. Some 37% saw Mr Sunak as the most capable premier, compared to 36% for Sir Keir; the respective numbers in January were 33 and 39. The direction of travel will clearly worry Labour strategists.

In terms of Tory members, the party leader also seems to be raising his game. A ConservativeHome grassroots poll showed in the last month that his net satisfaction rating rose from 7.4% to 43.7%. Quite a leap.

It seems Mr Sunak has impressed people with his quiet diplomacy with the EU on the Northern Ireland Protocol. Next week’s visit to the province by US President Joe Biden to mark the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement will do nothing to harm the PM’s diplomatic standing.

Then, there is the improvement in relations with France, the calming of market turmoil, the steady-as-she-goes Budget, the steadfastness on Ukraine and the popular move to stop the Scottish Government’s bill on gender recognition reform.

As ever, economic matters are the most important factor in an election. Analysts seem to agree that Mr Sunak will meet his pledges to halve inflation and grow the economy. Yet one survey suggested only 22% of people thought the economy would improve in the next 12 months. Some 58% said it would get worse.

The pledge that looks the most intractable is the one on stopping the small boats, with Dorset Tories already up in arms about using a barge moored locally to accommodate 500 migrants. Expect more Conservative resistance on using old RAF sites in England to house thousands more. And then, post-Easter, there are Tory rebel MPs to placate over toughening up the Illegal Migration Bill.

While the PM will have his work cut out to pacify the rebels and heal Westminster divisions, if he can show, post-Brexit, his Government is controlling the borders, then the continued loss of some Red Wall seats to Labour might be avoided. Migrant numbers are already down by 17% in Q1 this year compared to last.

The Conservative leader last week privately told his MPs that while voters were less hostile to the Tories post-Truss, “we still have more to do” in the detoxification process before the party has a chance of winning the election. Insiders are pencilling it in for autumn 2024.

The PM insisted colleagues had to “focus on the fundamentals” and ignore the white noise of day-to-day media commentary. Easier said than done, of course.

Read more: Next week could be the most critical period for Sunak’s political future

In the dusty corridors of Westminster, the green shoots of optimism are peeping through, with some Conservatives whispering that next year’s poll could be more like the 1992 election rather than the 1997 one.

The former saw a post-Thatcher Tory government, headed by John Major, win a slim majority of 21. While voters disliked the Conservatives, they disliked Labour under Neil Kinnock more. Five years later, Tony Blair’s New Labour romped home with a 179-majority. The Conservatives were wiped out in Scotland and Wales.

Interestingly, the ruse by some Scottish Conservatives to create a unionist pact for 2024 gave the impression not so much a “country first” attempt to rid Scotland of as many nationalist MPs as possible but, rather, a crude strategy to save their own skins. Given where the polls are, the image of a 1997 wipeout in Scotland is no doubt concentrating Tory minds.

So, while the smart money remains on Sir Keir being our next prime minister, helped in no small measure by Conservative infighting fomented by the pro-Brexit Spartans and the potential of an SNP implosion, there is still a good deal of political water to flow under the bridge until polling day.

Plus, one has to remember that, sometimes in politics, those famous “events” mean nothing can be regarded as absolutely certain. Or completely impossible. Not even another Conservative victory.