New figures published by the Office of National Statistics reveal that the estimated number of jobs created in the low carbon and renewable sectors in Scotland contracted over the last year.
Overall, low carbon and renewable energy employment was estimated to stand at 25,700 in 2022 which is substantially down from the 29,700 estimated jobs in 2021. The jobs total in 2022 stands barely above the 2014 figure of 23,200.
In the offshore wind sector, 3,100 jobs were estimated for Scotland in 2022, down from 3,200 jobs in 2021, while 3,100 jobs were estimated for the onshore wind sector – again down from 3,500 over the same period. The total for the onshore wind sector is shamefully only 400 more than 2014.
The ONS figures are in stark contrast with the SNP-led Scottish Government in 2010 promising 28,000 direct jobs in the offshore wind sector alone by 2020, and a further 20,000 jobs in related industries.
Unite would even question how many of these 6,200 jobs in the onshore and offshore wind sectors are based in construction, engineering, maintenance and manufacturing roles, rather than office based roles stemming from the headquarters of major energy firms. Indeed, the ONS confirmed to us that they don’t hold this type of information.
The wider point is vital to understand because it is primarily these two sectors politicians suggest are going to miraculously absorb the 220,000 highly skilled jobs that remain dependent on the oil and gas industry across the UK.
It doesn’t take a mathematical genius to work out that if low carbon and renewable jobs have increased by around only 2,500 over eight years, then how are the 93,600 oil and gas workers based in Scotland going to smoothly and effortlessly transition into these sectors any time soon. The hard truth is that as things stand, they will not. There is no green jobs revolution, it remains a myth perpetuated by politicians.
Industry bodies have disputed the ONS figures, suggesting the jobs figure is significantly higher but that’s not really what the experience in Scotland tells us. The story has been one of setbacks. This includes the mothballing of CS Wind in Machrihanish by its Korean owners, and the failure of the BiFab yards to secure anything significant from EDF’s £2 billion Neart na Gaoithe offshore windfarm project. EDF’s decision along with strategic political failures helped pave the way to BiFab being put into administration.
For Unite, the latest job figures does reflect the reality on the ground and in the seas off our nation’s shores. Thousands of members in the onshore and offshore energy sector are clearly making this point to us.
Last month, Unite published survey findings involving our Petroineos oil refinery members based at the Grangemouth complex. The survey showed that the workforce believe there has been a collective failure to support them following the announcement by Petroineos in November last year to begin transitioning its Grangemouth refining operations.
Only 3 per cent expressed confidence in the ongoing “just transition” plans for oil and gas workers; and 88 per cent said that politicians were ‘not doing enough to support and protect jobs at Grangemouth’.
According to estimates, the Grangemouth complex contributes four per cent of Scottish GDP and makes up approximately eight per cent of Scotland's manufacturing base. In this context, there has been an alarming abdication of any political responsibility over Grangemouth. The position is staggering given the complex’s strategic importance to the Scottish economy and the nation’s energy needs.
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The Scottish Government’s stated ambition is to support the continuation of the oil refinery’s operations for as long as possible, and as far as we understand, this is also the UK Government’s position. Yet, there has been radio silence from government ministers about how they intend to extend the lifespan of the oil refinery beyond 2025. We have asked for every policy option to be put on the table but the glaring problem remains that government ministers haven’t even put down one.
The best that seems to be on the table appears to be the monthly Grangemouth Future Industry Board meetings, and we believe that this forum will produce absolutely nothing tangible within the timeframes required.
The oil refinery can have a bright future beyond the provisional timeline set out by Petroineos. The latest pre-tax profit of £107.5m recorded by the company validates our strongly held belief.
We all need to ask ourselves, therefore, what will it say about Scotland’s economic priorities if the Grangemouth oil refinery is allowed to close on the current timeframe? Is it in our national interest if Scotland becomes the only major oil producing nation without the capability of actually refining that product?
What will it say about Scotland if we permit the oil refinery to be shut only then for us to require and rely on fuel imports which as a process carries with it significant carbon emissions?
Also, is it really in our nation’s energy security needs to stop refining oil only for it then to leave us potentially vulnerable to the unilateral whims of other governments and global corporations - many of whom have suspect human rights records.
At the forefront of Unite’s mind, what will it say about government priorities if they fail to protect 500 highly-skilled refining jobs at Grangemouth, and in doing so, enable a huge blow to the nation’s dwindling manufacturing base.
These are big questions but we do not have one firm answer to any of this from anyone in the ministerial offices of Holyrood and Westminster. The politicians would be wise to remember that there is a general election on the horizon, and Unite will be demanding answers from every single candidate to these questions.
Those in government, and aspiring to be, must bring forward fully funded proposals which make a Just Transition a reality not a pipedream for oil and gas workers.
So, what happens at the Petroineos oil refinery over the coming months is of major national importance, and it is perhaps one of the greatest tests that the Just Transition process will ever face in Scotland.
It’s critical to state that despite supporting an extension and further investment into the oil refinery, we also fully support the decarbonisation efforts being gradually rolled out in the oil and gas industry. Unite wants hydrogen, carbon capture and storage, and biofuels projects being supported and brought on stream faster in order to create cleaner and greener jobs for the long term.
The truth is that we do not see any coherent and coordinated energy diversification strategy by government - and there is certainly not one which is worker-led.
Oil and gas workers need concrete and fully costed plans which provide cast iron guarantees that they will not be thrown off a platform in the transition to net zero.
We cannot allow these workers to become the coal miners of our generation. Our real fear, which the latest ONS job numbers substantiate, is that’s exactly what is in the pipeline for our members unless a national energy strategy is put in place with the urgency the situation demands.
Derek Thomson is Unite's Scottish secretary
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