£4 Billion Barnett Bombshell.
Now that's the kind of headline the 'Yes' Campaign somehow needs to be generating. The punchbag strategy isn't working. Taking blow after blow from the preposterous but ruthlessly effective 'Project Fear' with just a knowing smile and dismissive shrug doesn't impress the voters if the opinion polls are anything to go by. Even the stoutest of punchbags gets worn out and tattered.
Scots want their politicians to be 'doughty fechters', not noble martyrs however great the cause. That's how the likes of Salmond and Sturgeon came to be so admired in the first place. The 'Yes' campaign should go on the front foot and throw some hefty punches of its own.
Let's start with the consequences of a 'No' victory. These are much scarier than anything Project Fear's nightmare factory has come up with.
First of all, rejecting independence means a green light for the savage cuts in UK government spending. The brunt of these will only be felt in Scotland in the years after the Referendum. By themselves, these cuts will be enough to choke off any possibility of future spending to deliver the kinds of policies that Scots clearly want - like better child care.
But in addition to these eye-watering cuts, devastating though they will be, awaits another, even more serious financial consequence of a 'No' vote - the dismantling of the Barnett Formula. It's estimated this will cost Scots £4 billion pounds annually.
It's taken for granted in England that the Barnett Formula is a way of feather-bedding Scottish subsidy junkies. How has it been allowed to happen, the outraged English Establishment thunders, that in Scotland students, the elderly and those needing medical treatment or care get a better deal than their equivalents south of the border?
Scots need to know that these popular and successful policies will go if Barnett goes. Even Labour MPs and councillors in the North of England, envious of Scotland's progressive achievements, are so locked into Blairite economics that they would rather abolish Barnett than campaign for the adoption of similar measures down south.
That Scots currently contribute 9.9% of UK tax revenues but receive only 9.3% of public spending is just another one of those awkward statistics which won't be allowed to get in the way of the stereotype of the shyster Jocks.
Instead of Barnett, a growing number of English MPs have been calling for Scotland's block grant to be funded on a 'needs basis'. These 'needs' will, of course, be defined by the Westminster parliament. The pressure for this change has been building up for some years now. Last month, Prime Minister Cameron sought to reassure Scots by stressing that he can guarantee there will definitely be no changes to the Barnett Formula…….before the next election. It's a measure of his esteem for the intelligence of the average Scots that he thinks a 12 month guarantee will do. No doubt he hopes we will forget that in 2008, in this very newspaper, he made it clear he supported the ending of the Barnett Formula.
Focusing on the uncertainty around Barnett might do the 'Yes' campaign a lot of good. A Panelbase poll last October indicated that 27% of voters were 'much more' or 'slightly more' likely to vote 'Yes' if the Barnett Formula was going to be abolished after 2015.
The newly released government papers from 1984 show that Mrs Thatcher had her finger on a similar Scottish pulse. Only the threat of outraged nationalist sentiment prevented the abolition of the Barnett Formula then.
We can be sure that in the event of a 'No' vote, the UK Establishment will seek constitutional and fiscal measures to eliminate the possibility of any further consideration of Scottish sovereignty for at least a generation or two. Abolishing Barnett is an obvious first move to curb the financial capacity of Scotland to make itself distinctively different from the rest of the UK.
'£4 Billion Barnett Bombshell.'
It would be a pity if Scots only faced up to the implications of such a headline after a 'No' victory next September.
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereComments are closed on this article