THE General Election is misnamed because it is no longer "general" due to the increased fracturing of British politics, a Scottish election expert has suggested.
Richard Rose, Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, said in a new report that instead of a uniform nationwide swing in which one party's losses were matched by the other party's gains, most of the seats changing hands would involve the two main Westminster parties gaining or losing seats to third-force parties like the SNP or the Liberal Democrats.
"The polls consistently show Labour is up in support by comparison with its disastrous showing in 2010 and the Conservatives are down from a result that failed to deliver a parliamentary majority five years ago. But that does not mean Labour will win the most seats; this requires examining how seats change hands in very different types of constituencies."
Prof Rose explained any collapse of the Lib Dems would benefit the Tories more than Labour because they were in second place in more than two thirds of the 57 seats held by Nick Clegg's party. Lib Dem voters defecting from their previous choice would, he argued, push more Tories into first place than Labour.
On current poll showings, Prof Rose calculated a Liberal Democratic loss of more than 40 seats would give the Conservatives enough seats to provide an absolute majority; if all other conditions remained equal.
"But of course they won't," declared the academic. "The rise of the UK Independence Party will ensure that collectively third parties will once again take one third of the national vote."
But any hope Nigel Farage's party had of speaking for England was doomed, Prof Rose concluded, because of the First Past The Post system, which made it unlikely Ukip would get more than one per cent of the seats ie six.
As for the SNP, Prof Rose said its surge in support would make Labour pay the price for being British.
"At the May election, most Scots will not be voting for which Englishman should be in Downing Street but who can best represent Scotland's interests in Parliament," he insisted, noting how the 55 per cent who voted No in September's referendum had five parties to choose from, which represented their views, while the 45 per cent, who voted Yes, had one: the SNP.
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