Analysis: Competence has emerged as the top priority for Alex Salmond�s administration, in a strategy that combines it with building consensus and setting out a longer-term vision.
Competence has emerged as the top priority for Alex Salmond's administration, in a strategy that combines it with building consensus and setting out a longer-term vision.
The word "independence" is taking a lower profile, as it becomes clear that the SNP-led administration is playing a longer game, positioning itself for the 2011 Holyrood election and then building the case from there.
Nationalists' hopes of a referendum on independence in 2010 have not been dashed, however. Alex Salmond reckons the Westminster election that must take place by then could have shifted opposition party attitudes towards additional powers for Holyrood and his referendum tactic of securing them. That reckoning is partly to avoid discontent among his more impatient activists, but is also in the hope of exploiting opposition splits - such as Tory differences over the question of backing a quick independence referendum, gambling it would secure a conclusive "no" vote.
However, the reality of the First Minister's precarious hold on power is forcing what will probably be a more gradual approach than his activists would like.
According to a senior executive source, everything the SNP does will be required to fit into its "competence, consensus, vision" mantra. That is divided into the short-term need to build consensus across the chamber of the Scottish Parliament if Mr Salmond's administration is to avoid being voted out of office in a motion of no confidence.
The medium-term aim is to build a reputation for competence, where the SNP previously had no experience of wielding power outside three of the smaller councils.
The "vision thing", as the elder President Bush described it, looks set for the longer-term, and is designed to avoid an all-or-nothing, independence-versus-the-Union debate. Independence will be presented as ministers' preferred option, but part of a broader spectrum of options.
The parameters of that debate are to be in the white paper setting out a vision for Scotland's future, to be published tomorrow. That is 10 days short of the 100-day milestone Mr Salmond set himself for a programme for government, and is the most anticipated of his 49 pledges.
Yesterday, as he explained his broader strategy, he claimed his administration is already building a reputation for being sensible and competent in handling unexpected events - the attempted bombing of Glasgow Airport and the foot-and-mouth outbreak - while consensus-building has featured in his broadcasting commission.
This confidence has been boosted by a poll, taken earlier this month, which showed satisfaction ratings running at 40%, with only 12% dissatisfied That same poll showed the SNP's support - 48% to Labour's 32% - is not being paralleled by support for independence, which has dropped to 32% for, and 49% against (figures that were mistakenly reversed in Saturday's edition of The Herald). Mr Salmond cannot afford to rush into a referendum without being more confident that he gets the result he wants.
Much of this strategy is borrowed from New Labour. The referendum tactic was used by Labour in 1997, to deflect the debate away from the General Election and then to underpin the case for home rule.
The language of a "national conversation" is also Labour-speak. It is a political tool to draw people in, and avoids the confrontational connotations of staging a debate. It also puts a gentle but inescapable pressure on political opponents to engage.
