HIBernian asked their supporters to "believe in deja vu" at the start of last week.

The phrase appeared on club advertising to flog tickets for the Scottish League Cup derby with Hearts, on the basis that seven years ago they had beaten their old rivals in the same cup, in the same round, and gone on to win the trophy itself. The phrase looked comically unfortunate before the week was out. Another manager making the long walk, fans' protests ringing in his ears, heat on Rod Petrie for the umpteenth time: that is what they really know as deja vu around Leith.

Here they go again, looking to appoint a manager in 2013 just as they did in 1998, 2001, 2002 (twice), 2004, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011. Does that sound like the record of a club that gets this right? "Our track record stands scrutiny with anybody else's," insisted Petrie, the chairman, yesterday. It does, and compared to just about everyone else's it is lamentable. Of all the appointments made since Petrie assumed charge, only three left because they were doing so well that another club was desperate to have them: Alex McLeish went to Rangers, Bobby Williamson to Plymouth Argyle and Tony Mowbray to West Bromwich Albion. The others - Franck Sauzee, John Collins, Mixu Paatelainen, John Hughes, Colin Calderwood and Fenlon - were sacked or walked after reigns which had deteriorated into varying degrees of mediocrity or outright failure.

There was a time when Petrie was regarded as something of an alchemist when it came to identifying managerial talent. McLeish, Sauzee, Williamson and Mowbray amounted to three decent ones out of four (the faithful still mourn the fact Franck was the one who could not cut it) and of course Collins then delivered the League Cup before a tailspin began. But the more practice Petrie has had, the poorer his judgement has become. The average lifespan of a Hibs manager these days is around two years and fewer than 100 games. It is evidence that the chairman and his board do not have a feel for the type of figure who will bring attractive, modestly-successful football to an otherwise well-run club.

Fenlon left Hibs in a better condition than he found them. After the car crash of Calderwood's time in charge, when they were as dire as even some of the oldest fans can remember, Fenlon cleared out plenty of the deadwood and improved the discipline and professionalism around the place. The fact that he inspired a season of sparkling football from Leigh Griffiths spoke volumes for his man-management. It is said that the scouting operation is much better than it was before Fenlon arrived.

Griffiths is long gone but better discipline and scouting, and a general improvement in the standard of player in the squad will be beneficial to number 10: the next manager appointed on Petrie's watch in the coming days. It is also worth taking a moment to record the fact Hibs are currently seventh in the SPFL Premiership, seven points clear of the play-offs and 22 points ahead of Hearts.

Managers are usually chased out of clubs when their team is bumping around the foot of the table: Hibs are not exactly going anywhere fast but nor are they in any trouble. The next guy who comes in - the speculation centres on Terry Butcher - will be starting from a decent platform.

What they need is an experienced manager who knows the scene. This is not the time for one from left-field, one plucked from the periphery almost as though the reason for doing so was to show the media's ignorance by surprising them. The three managers who have lasted the longest in the Petrie era - and relative longevity is an indicator of suitability for the job - were McLeish, Williamson and Mowbray, the three who were subsequently poached. What the two Scots had in common was previous experience and success with other top-flight clubs in this country.

The appointments under Petrie have tended to be speculative gambles on young managers with potential, rather than going for someone with a long proven record of success in the Scottish top flight. Hibs deserve better than that. Why should they not go to another club and say: "we want your man"? They are the fourth-best supported club in the Premiership at the moment. They have 8000 season-ticket holders, the envy of the vast majority of rivals. They posted a profit in their most recent accounts, the debt is manageable, they have splendid training facilities and they recently lavished a £200,000 fee on one signing, a startling commitment to the manager who is now gone.

All of that suggests Petrie is a canny operator who runs the club well, albeit one with a reputation for meddling. But he has lost the knack he had for getting the right manager. It is wrong to portray this as a "big" appointment for Petrie: they could just as easily bring in yet another guy who muddles along for a couple of years, has his moments, and then fails and leaves. The chairman would survive that just as he has survived all the others.

But showing ambition now, when it looks like Hearts will join Rangers in the lower leagues next season, could take Hibs to a level they have not reached for years. They have a chance to break this cycle and this deja vu.