BT Murrayfield, Edinburgh, kick-off 3.15pm
WHAT’S AT STAKE?
This is the last of three Rugby World Cup warm-up games before the final squad of 31 is selected. For a few players, this is their last chance to claim a place. For the team as a whole, there is a need to build on last week’s narrow win in Turin.
GROUNDS FOR OPTIMISM
That 16-12 victory in Italy ended a run of six losses, and showed that Scotland have rediscovered the knack of winning while not playing particularly well. More significantly, the team that begins this afternoon’s match is far closer to head coach Vern Cotter’s first-choice 15. The front five looks particularly strong, while the return of Finn Russell at stand-off should spark more life into the backs.
CAUSE FOR CONCERN
The Italians, for whom last Saturday was a first outing of the summer, will be fitter, stronger and more competitive this week. They deservedly won at Murrayfield in the spring, and will again target any weaknesses in the Scottish pack, especially in the maul and scrum.
KEY CONTEST
Finn Russell versus Tommy Allan. Russell’s versatility should cause Allan a bigger headache in the battle of the stand-offs than Duncan Weir managed last week. The Scotland No 10 will also test his opposite number by running more ball, and has an equally important role to play in defence.
TACTICAL BATTLE
Italy’s best chance of a win is to keep play tight and forwards-based, so Scotland need to do two things: in defence, halt their opponents’ maul before it builds up steam; and in possession, spread the play more rapidly and more often than they did last week. The key issue for scrum-half and captain Greig Laidlaw will be when to drive on through the forwards and when to release the outside backs. If he gets the balance right, the likes of Stuart Hogg and Mark Bennett should do enough to ensure another win.
PREDICTION
Scotland 24 Italy 15.
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