A run of 10 successive defeats against the team they are opposing next is hardly designed to inspire confidence in any side, but the way they contributed to the hosts’ early exit has inspired belief that they are capable of doing anything.
Admittedly it does not take much to do that in rugby-obsessed Wales, but 10 points behind with their back division wrecked by injury they had no right to conjure up the match turning move which produced the late try that let them get back into that match at Twickenham a fortnight ago.
Now, having had a chance to regroup and get, in Liam Williams, the most talented of the players who was injured that day back on the field, they believe they are ready to take on a Wallaby side that had much less trouble in sweeping England aside last weekend.
They are buoyed in thinking so by the absence of Michael Hooper from the Australian side, potentially reducing their potency at the breakdown which is so important to them, while Wales may even have the upper hand there in being able to unleash their own twin openside pair in Sam Warburton and Justin Tipuric.
Furthermore Warren Gatland, whose length of tenure as Wales coach is such that he was in charge when that last victory against Australia was achieved, back in 2008, is keen to remind the Wallabies that he and his captain have had more recent success against them.
“We’ve been successful in the past and the job Sam did in the second Test for the Lions in 2013, in the way that he controlled things at the breakdown,” Gatland pointed out.
Which is true and there is no question that if Wales can get an above average share of possession they have the footballers to expose the Australians.
However what has also been evident in the last couple of matches these sides have played in the course of this tournament is that old assumptions about relative strength and weakness in the set-piece can no longer be taken for granted.
Far from having to work their way around superior English power, as has been the case in the past, Australia had the upper hand in the scrummages last week which surprised those who had not paid enough attention to the improvements the Wallabies had made in that department in giving them the platform on which to build this season’s Rugby Championship success.
With a front-row forward, hooker Stephen Moore, captaining them they have put renewed emphasis on that department and when the breakdown excellence they have long boasted and the brilliance of their back play is also factored in, it is a potent combination.
Perhaps of greater concern than that for Wales, however, is the pressure they were put under in the scrums in their last match by of all teams Fiji, the country that has always considered sevens to be its national sport and has always given the impression that it would prefer to see the implementation of the rugby league version of re-starting games, with the team in possession throwing the ball unchallenged into the back-row.
That seemed all the more significant because the Wales front five has not suffered from anything like the scale of the injury problems they have had in their backs, so while Paul James’ return at prop will make a difference it may be a bit much to expect him to bring about a transformation on that scale.
Either way the reality is that both history and form seem to favour the two-time champions whose performance at Twickenham last weekend in ultimately out-playing England in every department was highly persuasive in terms of laying out their credentials to follow up on having been the first team to win this tournament twice by becoming the first to win it a third time.
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