St James’ Park, Newcastle, kick-off 2.30pm. Live on ITV.
WHAT’S AT STAKE?
Scotland are out to secure second place in Pool B, which would take them through to a quarter-final against the winners of this afternoon’s Wales v Australia match. Samoa have an outside chance of claiming third place in the pool, which would give them automatic qualification for the next Rugby World Cup.
POOL B PERMUTATIONS
Scotland, who have ten points, need to finish at least level on points with Japan, who have eight - Scotland beat Japan in their first pool match, so will progress if they do finish equal on points. A win will guarantee second place for Scotland, regardless of how Japan fare against the United States tomorrow. A draw or a loss with two bonus points would also be enough if Japan win without a bonus point.
GROUNDS FOR OPTIMISM
Scotland are on far better form than Samoa. Provided they get something like an equal share of possession up front, they should have the firepower in the backs to run in a few tries and win well.
CAUSE FOR CONCERN
Although Samoa have been well below their best, they cannot be written off lightly. They have the physical power to punish any team, and in full-back Tim Nanai-Williams have one of the best counter-attackers in the tournament. Scotland have been able to shrug off spells of indifferent form in their games against Japan and the United States and gone on to win, but there is a vulnerability there which Samoa will be confident of exploiting.
KEY CONTEST
Greig Laidlaw versus Kahn Fotuali’i. The two scrum-halves are also their team captains today, with Fotuali’i having replaced the injured Ofisa Treviranus. Fotuali’i is qucker off the mark than Laidlaw, but lacks the Scot’s consistency.
TACTICAL BATTLE
Scotland will want to play a structured, disciplined game in order to frustrate Samoa, with a lot of kicking for position in the first half. If and when they reach parity up front, they will then try to put the pressure on through their most incisive backs such as centre Mark Bennett and full-back Stuart Hogg.
PREDICTION
Samoa 17 Scotland 37
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