the next few months will tell us whether there really is no limit to appetites for Ashes cricket, as the back-to-back home and away five-Test series starts in Nottingham on Wednesday.

England start as clear favourites, a position justified by both man-to-man comparison between the likely teams and recent form. But they should remember the old theory that Australia could weld a competitive team out of 11 men recruited from the nearest pub, even if the behaviour of some current players suggests their selectors might have done just that.

Not since 1989 have England gone for a hat-trick of victories over Australia. Then too the visitors were dismissed and derided. One magazine showed Australian captain Allan Border with the speech bubble caption "I wonder what it's like to win a Test match". He soon found out. Australia won 4-0.

So there was sense in England pace bowler Steve Finn's comment last week when he said: "Australia are always a very competitive team and have got some excellent cricketers. We can't allow ourselves to think that it is going to be easy by any stretch of the imagination."

The case against Australia is clear. They arrived from arguably their worst beating, a 4-0 hammering in India, disgraced themselves in a Birmingham bar, crashed out of the Champions Trophy and canned their coach in mid-tour. Even good Australian teams struggle against decent swing bowling, and the packing of a flaky top order with left-handers adds an extra layer of vulnerability against Graeme Swann's spin. They have been reduced to calling up 35-year-old rookies.

The case in favour, since it has been made clear he will open at Nottingham, starts with that veteran neophyte, Chris Rogers. The mystery is not that Australia have now chosen a player who averages more than 50 across a career long enough to encompass 60 first-class hundreds, but that they have done so only once before.

New coach Darren Lehmann's relaxed style may be exactly what a team grown tense, tetchy and uncomfortable with themselves, need. And you don't get to succeed in environments as diverse as the money-soaked Indian Premier League and Australia's Sheffield Shield without being considerably more than a cheerful chap who enjoys a pint.

The team he is joining has struggled in recent months, and did conspicuously less well than England when last winter's trips to India are compared. But go back a little further and a different picture emerges. Australia played tight home and away series against the South African team who slaughtered England at home last summer and were only a single victory away from going to the top of the world rankings.

Michael Clarke, whose physical fragility means Australia's physiotherapist may matter as much as any of their players, is the best batsman on either side. He is also a much more creative captain than Alastair Cook.

And while Australia lack spin bowlers of any distinction, they have plenty of pace. James Pattinson's record of 40 wickets in 10 Tests at an average of 23 suggested something pretty formidable even before it was revealed that he is on a family mission to avenge the miserable manner in which older brother Darren was treated during and after his single appearance for England five years ago.

Peter Siddle and Ryan Harris offer aggression mixed with the craft of veterans, while Mitchell Starc looks set to form a classic left-right opening combination with Pattinson.

And is England's batting really that formidable nowadays? Recent matches have shown them prone to sudden shocking collapses. Joe Root may be likely to play Test cricket into the later 2020s, Kevin Pietersen capable of playing staggering innings and Ian Bell unquestionable class, but Australia will be well aware of potential weaknesses. Root has not previously opened in a Test, Pietersen is short of match practice and Bell increasingly prone to slow-moving introspection and daft dismissals. Pietersen's impact on team chemistry also remains an imponderable.

And while the bowling appears armed at all points, particularly if Jimmy Anderson – once derided by Australia, but since 2009 dreaded – can make the ball swing, the attack still may be only an Anderson injury or a loss of form by the 34-year-old Swann away from becoming a blunt weapon.

Fitness, particularly Clarke's, will matter. So too will the weather, predicted perfect for Nottingham, but hardly to be trusted this year. Airy predictions of an England win by 3-0 or more fly in the face of history showing they have won an Ashes by three matches only once at home since 1886 – and that was against the Packer-wracked Aussies of 1977. Logic may say England should win, but this is no time to be shouting the odds.