AN IMPRESSIVE, Teflon-like element of Gordon Strachan's reign as Scotland manager is that he has created a sense of momentum that even multiple defeats cannot dent.
In the past 13 months, there have been demanding fixtures against England, Belgium and Germany - and Scotland have lost them all.
Two nights ago the team grew during its performance against the world champions in Dortmund, trading blows, scoring and briefly threatening to deliver something sensational. But poor defending at a set-piece - a recurring issue that cannot be airbrushed - allowed Thomas Mueller to claim his second goal of the night.
The hardest fixture in Group D is over and done with now. The most difficult phase of Strachan's management is about to begin. Losing to Germany was easily tolerable because the second-half performance was bright and bubbly. There had been much to take from the 3-2 defeat at Wembley last year, too, while there was no shame in losing by two goals to the classy Belgians.
Scotland are comfortable in the role of plucky underdogs, holding their own and sometimes delivering a bloody nose or two to some more accomplished opponent. The safety net is about to be removed. They must now start to win competitive games under pressure. If they are to make it to Euro 2016 there is no further allowance for glorious failures, that cursed phrase. Before 2014 is out there will be further qualifiers against Georgia at home, Poland away and the Republic of Ireland at home. Seven points are probably essential from that lot. They should be aiming for nine.
In the past year Strachan's teams have won a competitive game in Macedonia and friendlies in Norway and Poland. Those are the sort of results which, if repeated in a qualifying campaign, build the bedrock of points which take a team through. The more they can harvest home and away against the Poles, the Irish, Georgia and Gibraltar, the easier it will be to tolerate a probable (but not certain) home defeat when the Germans come to Glasgow.
The signature result of Strachan's 13 games remains the victory in Croatia last summer. That released a wellspring of confidence from which everyone continues to sup. As he reflected on the Germany defeat yesterday, he talked of the fine lines, the little moments which separate triumph and failure.
"I said that to the coaching staff after the game - did you know we were a corner kick away from creating history again? It was a corner kick that did the damage against England [Rickie Lambert scored the winner with a header] and it was a corner again in Germany that led to the winning goal. It's annoying to lose big games to goals like that. You look at Thomas Mueller's leap for the opener and there's not much you can do against that.
"But, yes, that's what I was thinking: that's twice we've been close to doing something historic and twice we've left with nothing. But sometimes you have to take a few hits before you achieve that historic moment. The history everyone wants is for us to qualify for a finals. I know that. But there will be a lot of heartache along the way between now and then. Guaranteed."
Victory is essential when Georgia come to Ibrox in the next game. It is exactly the sort of fixture which has given Scottish teams the heebie-jeebies for years: a must-win 90 minutes against a lesser opponent which may come to Glasgow and park the bus. To be around the Scotland camp these days is to be bombarded with upbeat messages about how confident and enthusiastic everyone is, and how much better everything is. There is plenty of evidence to justify that from the recent performances, the defeats included. Against Georgia, it will have to be reflected in a win.
"You see them train and you think 'I can't leave him out' or 'that one's doing really well'," said Strachan. "It might be just because I'm getting to know people better and what they can do. Maybe I trust them a wee bit more. We've tried to make a team of people who are really brave on the ball. That was the big thing for me. Yes, you might get the ball taken off you a few times but I would rather have that than guys who don't want to have the ball in the first place."
Anya's bravery is beyond question given the nerveless one-on-one chance he buried. Barry Bannan and, thankfully, David Marshall had fine games. Steven Fletcher gave perhaps his most effective Scotland performance yet, despite only coming on in the 58th minute. He created the goal and also made a lovely chance for Naismith. "The funny thing is we worked all this week and I'm watching him thinking: 'what a good player you are'," Strachan purred. "He's a real player, a big elegant guy who can take the ball in. All Fletcher needs is goals now and that will come by playing more games."
Strong teams, teams which qualify for things, recognise their flaws and address them. To his credit Strachan maintained his position on not publicly criticising referees. He was upset that Norwegian Svein Oddvar Moen did not show Erik Durm a red card for denying Naismith a goalscoring opportunity, showed Mulgrew a second yellow card for kicking the ball away, and prematurely blew for full-time before Scotland could take a corner. But he did not use those decisions as an excuse. "I think, as the international manager, you have to set some kind of standard. It's not like being a club manager because if you say something you shouldn't then you embarrass the SFA and the whole country. So you have to stay calm and set a standard. I have learned that in this job."
Scotland have looked for scapegoats since France 98 and referees have often been easy fall-guys. It is a weak attitude and should be abandoned. For now the reality is that Strachan has created a Scotland set-up which ripples with promise and potential but is joint bottom of the group. They won't have Germany's classy crossing and finishing to deal with against Georgia, but they'll need tighter defending and finishing when the Euro 2016 campaign begins again in earnest.
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